太阳光谱辐射强度变化对地球能量平衡的影响分析

目前太阳对地球能量平衡影响的研究大都是以太阳总辐射通量密度作为输入参数的. 本文以美国航空航天局（National Aeronautics and Space Administration,NASA）太阳辐射与气候实验项目的卫星实测数据为基础,对太阳上升相（2010年上半年）和下降相（2007年12月）期间太阳光谱变化对地球能量平衡的影响进行了研究. 结果表明,2010年上半年较强的太阳总辐射通量密度主要是由紫外及红外波段的能量增强引起的,其在200～400nm 和760～4000nm波段内的平均能量分别增加了0.11%和0.05%,而在 400～760nm可见光区的能量却呈减小趋势,平均减小量为0.05%. 通过对MLS2.2全球臭氧日数据进行再分析后发现,相对于2007年12月,2010年上半年平流层臭氧浓度也有所增加,其中在太阳紫外辐射呈现较大增强的2月和3月,其臭氧增量也相对较大,最大值分别出现在33km和40km处,值为0.6mL·m-3和0.62mL·m-3. 因此,可见光区能量减弱与平流层臭氧浓度增加的双重削弱作用致使虽然2010年上半年的太阳总辐射通量密度较大,但是到达对流层顶的太阳辐射却有所减小,最大减小量出现在3月,值为0.15W·m-2. 这一结果说明,太阳活动或总辐射通量密度的增强也有可能对地球对流层系统起到冷却作用.      

Temperature and pressure variability in mid-latitude low atmosphere and stratosphere-ionosphere coupling

This study presents the continuation of our previous analysis of variations of atmospheric and space weather parameters above Iberian Peninsula along two years near the 24th solar cycle maximum. In the previous paper (Morozova et al., 2017) we mainly discussed the first mode of principal component analysis of tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature and pressure fields, which was shown to be correlated with lower stratospheric ozone and anti-correlated with cosmic ray flux. Now we extend the investigation to the second mode, which suggests a coupling between the stratosphere and the ionosphere.This second mode, located in the low and middle stratosphere (and explaining ~7% of temperature and ~3% of geopotential height variations), showed to be statistically significantly correlated with variations of the middle stratosphere ozone content and anti-correlated with variations of ionospheric total electron content. Similar co-variability of these stratospheric and ionospheric parameters was also obtained with the wavelet cross-coherence analysis.To investigate the role of atmospheric circulation dynamics and the causal nature of the found correlations, we applied the convergent cross mapping (CCM) analysis to our series. Strong evidence for the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling were obtained for the winter 2012–2013 that is characterized by the easterly QBO phase (quasi-biennial oscillations of the direction of the stratospheric zonal winds) and a strong SSW (sudden stratospheric warming event). Further analysis (for the three-year time interval 2012–2015) hint that SSWs events play main role in emphasizing the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling.     

The regional peculiarities of the total ozone content variations caused by solar/geomagnetic phenomena

The ozone variations possibly caused by solar electromagnetic radiation, geomagnetic storms and solar particle events depend on the latitude and longitude. The results of the statistical analysis on the base of TOMS total ozone content (TOC) measurements are compared for the regions with the same geographical or geomagnetic latitude but with different stratospheric and/or tropospheric dynamics. The atmospheric circulation could be the intermediate link of a chain of solar/geomagnetic influence on the TOC.     

Global pictures of the ozone field,from high altitudes,from DE-I

Using the imaging instrumentation aboard the Dynamics Explorer spacecraft (DE-I), total column ozone densities are obtained in the sunlit hemisphere by measuring the intensities of backscattered solar ultraviolet radiation with multiple filters and multiple photometers. The high apogee altitude (23,000 km) of the eccentric polar orbit allows high resolution global-scale images of the terrestrial ozone field to be obtained within 12 minutes. Previous ozone-monitoring spacecraft have required much longer time periods for comparable spatial coverage because of their lower altitudes (<1200 km). The much higher altitude of DE-I also provides hours of continuous imaging of features compared to minutes or seconds with previous spacecraft. Near perigee, high resolution images can be gained with pixel size as small as 3 km to view mesoscale atmospheric variations. Utilizing these data, the effects of planetary-scale, synoptic-scale, and mesoscale dynamical processes, which control the distribution of ozone near the tropopause, can be studied. Preliminary results show short-term (less than one day) variations in the synoptic ozone field and these variations appear to be in accord with meteorological data. Spatial variations in the ozone field are found to be highly negatively correlated with tropopause altitude.     

Solar UV radiation variations and their stratospheric and climatic effects

NIMBUS-7 SBUV measurements of the short-term solar UV variations caused by solar rotation and active-region evolution have determined the amplitude and wavelength dependence for the active-region component of solar UV variations. Intermediate-term variations lasting several months are associated with rounds of major new active regions. The UV flux stays near the peak value during the current solar cycle variation for more than two years and peaks about two years later than the sunspot number. NIMBUS-7 measurements have observed the concurrent stratospheric ozone variations caused by solar UV variations. There is now no doubt that solar UV variations are an important cause of short- and long-term stratospheric variations, but the strength of the coupling to the troposphere and to climate has not yet been proven.     

平流层臭氧和辐射场的季节分布特征

利用美国NCAR化学气候耦合模式WACCM3对平流层温度场、风场、臭氧及辐射场进行了模拟.结果表明,在适宜飞艇长期驻留的准零风层高度20～22km(对应大气压强范围为50～30hPa,以下均采用气压值表征对应大气高度),7-8月风速小于5m·s-1的风带可长期稳定在40°N以北.臭氧空间分布显示,在30hPa气压高度处中国地区臭氧浓度出现了带状分布,30hPa高度以下低纬度地区臭氧浓度低于中纬度地区.平流层太阳加热率的时空变化表明,在平流层上层,太阳加热率可达100×10-6K·s-1,而在平流层下层,只有10×10-6K·s-1.6-8月中国区域的太阳加热率大于9月;在100～30hPa高度内,中纬度地区太阳加热率高于低纬度地区,在30hPa高度以上,低纬度地区太阳加热率高于中纬度地区;8-9月30～40hPa高度处,太阳加热率的空间变化较小.在30hPa高度上,太阳加热率在40°N昼夜变化最大;50hPa高度处,太阳加热率的昼夜变化小于30hPa高度处,而且白天太阳加热率出现极大值的纬度明显靠北.平流层低纬度地区的长波加热率小于中纬度地区.青藏高原由于地形特殊,其6-7月的臭氧浓度、太阳加热率和长波加热率均小于同纬度其他地区.      

On the quasi-biennial oscillation in equatorial stratospheric temperatures and total ozone

The results of a cross-spectral analysis between monthly mean temperatures at 100 mb, 50 mb and 30 mb over the equator and the corresponding monthly mean BUV total ozone at different latitude zones are presented for the period 1970–1977. Significant squared coherences between total ozone and 50 mb equatorial temperatures at 26 months are only found between 5 degrees on each side of the equator, between 45 deg N and 55 deg N and at 45 deg S. At latitudes were the QBO in stratospheric temperature diminishes so does the QBO in total ozone (i.e. close to 35 deg N and 15 deg S). Over subtropical latitudes there is a tendency towards a more biennial oscillation in total ozone (not correlated with the equatorial QBO in stratospheric temperatures) and at 65 deg N and 65 deg S total ozone oscillates at periods greater than the equatorial QBO.     

Assessment of the ozone and temperature variability during 1979–1993 with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL

The chemistry-climate model SOCOL has been applied for the study of ozone and temperature anomalies during 1979–1993. Temperature and ozone anomalies have been obtained for a set of model runs forced by all major stratospheric forcing mechanisms. Forcings have been prescribed separately and together to assess their individual influence on stratospheric ozone and temperature. The results of these simulations have been compared to available satellite data. The model captures well ozone depletion and cooling in the upper stratosphere due to increases in the abundance of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere. In the lower stratosphere, the model reproduces the warming over tropical and middle latitudes caused by the El-Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions. However, the simulated ozone response is overestimated in comparison with SAGE data. The best agreement with observations has been obtained for the run with all forcings included. This emphasizes the importance of the volcanic and solar forcings for the correct reproduction of observed trends. Comparison of near-global total ozone anomalies confirms an overestimation of ozone depletion just after volcanic eruptions, while the overall agreement with the model is fairly good.     

Contribution of solar UV radiation to the observed ozone variations during the 21st and 22nd solar cycles

A two-dimensional dynamical radiative-photochemical model of the ozonosphere including aerosol physics is used to examine the changes of the Earth's ozone layer occurred during the 21st and 22nd solar cycles. The calculated global total ozone changes in the latitude range 60°S—60°N caused by 11-year variation of solar UV radiation, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic atmospheric pollution containing CO₂, CH₄, N₂O and chlorine and bromine species are in a rather good agreement with the observed global ozone trend. The calculations show that the anthropogenic pollution of the atmosphere is a main reason of the ozone depletion observed during the last two solar cycles. However, the 11-year solar UV variation as well as volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo also gave a significant contribution to the observed global ozone changes.     

对流层顶变化对上对流层/下平流层臭氧分布的影响

上对流层和下平流层(UT／LS)，位于8-25km高度之间，是大气中一个很特殊的区域．大部分的臭氧分布在下平流层，在下平流层臭氧的含量发生一个很小的变化，就会对气候和地面的紫外辐射产生很大的影响．而作为气象参数的对流层顶，是充分混合、缺乏臭氧的上对流层和层结稳定、臭氧丰富的下平流层之间的边界或过渡层，其变化对臭氧总量和分布有直接和明显的影响．本文使用二维模式模拟研究对流层顶变化对臭氧在UT／LS分布的影响．模拟结果表明对流层顶的季节变化对UT/LS的臭氧分布有明显的影响，臭氧的局地变化可以超过10％在冬季北半球中纬度对流层顶高度升高1km时，模式结果表明对臭氧分布的影响比较显著，局地变化可超过6％，但是对臭氧总量的影响较小，变化不超过5DU，小于观测资料统计分析的结果。     

Variations of the radiation dose onboard Mir station

Dose variations, associated with the 11-year solar activity cycle, seasonal variations of particle fluxes in the Earth's radiation belts at the station orbit, and solar proton events are studied, using prolonged measurements of radiation doses inside orbital station Mir. Daily averages of radiation doses during the declining phase of the 22^nd solar cycle and during transition to the 23^rd solar activity cycle reached very large values for astronauts and significantly exceed the values calculated according to existing models.     

Ozone mini-hole observation over the Balkan Peninsula in March 2005

Areas with dimensions of 1000–3000 km in which the total ozone content (TOC) decreases fast are called ozone mini-holes. They are generated mainly dynamically in two ways, either by poor-ozone air mass transport from the tropics to higher latitudes by planetary wave activity or, they are connected with strong adiabatic uplifting of the tropopause height. An ozone mini-hole, generated by the second mechanism, was observed over the Balkan Peninsula on 19/21 March 2005. In the middle of March, the polar vortex was strongly disturbed by Rossby waves, reaching up to the lower stratosphere. Warming episodes over a geographical area, covering the Barents Sea and the Polar Sea north from Central Siberia, displaced a polar vortex fragment extremely southwards. However, the vorticity was weak and the stratospheric temperatures did not reach low values, providing conditions for ozone chemical destruction via heterogenic reactions. At the same time, a Rossby wave ridge was located below the European polar fragment. In the period from 13 to 19 March, the thermal tropopause over Sofia was uplifted almost by 3 km. Ozone distributions observed by the SCIAMACHY instrument on 18–21 March show a fast TOC decrease westwards from Ireland, which was moving eastwards during the next days, increasing the area in which the ozone content decreased. On 20/21 March low ozone content was observed above the Stara Zagora (42°N, 25°E) ground-based station by means of the GASCOD instrument, using DOAS technique. The TOMS Earth probe instrument detected 237 DU over Sofia. This is a record low March value from the beginning of the TOMS instrument measurements in 1978. In March/April the ozone distribution was characterized by its mean annual maximum of 360 DU at 42°N.     

Total solar irradiance and climate

The solar radiation is the fundamental source of energy that drives the Earth’s climate and sustains life. The variability of this output certainly affects our planet. In the last two decades an enormous advance in the understanding of the variability of the solar irradiance has been achieved. Space-based measurements indicate that the total solar irradiance changes at various time scales, from minutes to the solar cycle.Climate models show that total solar irradiance variations can account for a considerable part of the temperature variation of the Earth’s atmosphere in the pre-industrial era. During the 20th century its relative influence on the temperature changes has descended considerably. This means that other sources of solar activity as well as internal and man-made causes are contributing to the Earth’s temperature variability, particularly the former in the 20th century.Some very challenging questions concerning total solar irradiance variations and climate have been raised: are total solar irradiance variations from cycle to cycle well represented by sunspot and facular changes? Does total solar irradiance variations always parallel the solar activity cycle? Is there a long-term variation of the total solar irradiance, and closely related to this, is the total solar irradiance output of the quiet sun constant? If there is not a long-term trend of total solar irradiance variations, then we need amplifying mechanisms of total solar irradiance to account for the good correlations found between total solar irradiance and climate. The latter because the observed total solar irradiance changes are inconsequential when introduced in present climate models.     

The structure of the solar cycle maximum phase in the galactic cosmic ray 11-year variation

Two phenomena connected with the maximum phase of the 11-year solar cycle in the galactic cosmic ray intensity – the change in the energy dependence of the intensity variations and the double-peak structure in the intensity modulation time profile – are considered for the last five solar cycles (Nos. 19–23). The distinct 22-year cycle in the magnitude of the so called energy hysteresis is observed.The periods of the solar cycle maximum phase in the galactic cosmic ray intensity, characterized by the specific energy dependence of the intensity, are estimated. It is found that the double-peak structures belonging to the solar cycle maximum phase and those around it are very similar both in the amplitude and in its energy dependence.     

Sun CubE OnE: A multi-wavelength synoptic solar micro satellite

The Sun cubE onE (SEE) is a 12U CubeSat mission proposed for a phase A/B study to the Italian Space Agency that will investigate Gamma and X-ray fluxes and ultraviolet (UV) solar emission to support studies in Sun-Earth interaction and Space Weather from LEO. More in detail, SEE’s primary goals are to measure the flares emission from soft-X to Gamma ray energy range and to monitor the solar activity in the Fraunhofer Mg II doublet at 280 nm, taking advantage of a full disk imager payload. The Gamma and X-ray fluxes will be studied with unprecedented temporal resolution and with a multi-wavelength approach thanks to the combined use of silicon photodiode and silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) -based detectors. The flare spectrum will be explored from the keV to the MeV range of energies by the same payload, and with a cadence up to 10 kHz and with single-photon detection capabilities to unveil the sources of the solar flares. The energy range covers the same bands used by GOES satellites, which are the standard bands for flare magnitude definition. At the same time SiPM detectors combined with scintillators allow to cover the non-thermal bremsstrahlung emission in the gamma energy range. Given its UV imaging capabilities, SEE will be a key space asset to support detailed studies on solar activity, especially in relation to ultraviolet radiation which strongly interacts with the upper layers of the Earth’s atmosphere, and in relation to space safety, included in the field of human space exploration. The main goal for the UV payload is to study the evolution of the solar UV emission in the Mg II band at two different time scales: yearly variations along the solar cycle and transient variations during flare events. The Mg II index is commonly used as a proxy of the solar activity in the Sun-as-a-star paradigm, in which solar irradiance variations in the UV correlate with the variations in stratospheric ozone concentrations and other physical parameters of the Earth high atmosphere. SEE data will be used together with space and ground-based observatories that provide Solar data (e.g. Solar Orbiter, IRIS, GONG, TSST), high energy particle fluxes (e.g. GOES, MAXI, CSES) and geomagnetic data in a multi-instrument/multi-wavelength/multi-messenger approach.     

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

Solar terrestrial effects of two distinct types

The occurrence frequencies or fluxes of most of the solar phenomena show a 11-year cycle like that of sunspots. However, the average characteristics of these phenomena may not show a 11-year cycle. Among the terrestrial parameters, some related directly to the occurrence frequencies of solar phenomena (for example, ionospheric number densities related to solar EUV fluxes which show 11-year cycle like sunspots) show 11-year cycles, including the double-peak structures near sunspot maxima. Other terrestrial parameters related to average characteristics may not show 11-year sunspot cycles. For example, long-term geomagnetic activity (Ap or Dst indices) is related to the average interplanetary solar wind speed V and the total magnetic field B. The average values of V depend not on the occurrence frequency of ICMEs and/or CIRs as such, but on the relative proportion of slow and high-speed events in them. Hence, V values (and Ap values) in any year could be low, normal or high irrespective of the phase of the 11-year cycle, except that during sunspot minimum, V (and Ap) values are also low. However, 2–3 years after the solar minimum (well before sunspot maximum), V values increase, oscillate near a high level for several years, and may even increase further during the declining phase of sunspot activity, due to increased influence of high-speed CIRs (corotating interplanetary regions). Thus, Ap would have no fixed relationship with sunspot activity. If some terrestrial parameter shows a 11-year cycle, chances are that the solar connection is through the occurrence frequencies (and not average characteristics) of some solar parameter.     

Atmospheric electrodynamics modulated by the solar wind

Variations of stratospheric temperature are connected with changes of the solar wind dynamic pressure. This effect could be explained in the framework of the global electric circuit concept. The energy of the solar wind modulates the energy balance of the global electric circuit where the stratosphere could be one of its other elements. The conductivity of the stratosphere in the polar region is equal to and sometimes more than the conductivity of the ground surface covered by ice or permafrost. Re-distribution of the global electric circuit currents between the stratosphere and the ground surface determines a different relation between solar wind dynamics and variations of the stratospheric temperature during different seasons.     

Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.     

高层大气原子氧的半年周变

地球高层大气成分的长期变化受太阳黑子周、太阳活动程度和地磁活动程度等诸多因子所控制．本文利用国外有关高层大气成分的数据,分别讨论受上述控制因子影响的高层大气成分长期变化,讨论范围仅限原子氧半年周期变化．选用LDEF在轨飞行器1984年4月—1990年1月高度470km附近的长期资料进行统计分析,结果表明,高度470km附近原子氧在年平均太阳黑子数＜20、太阳活动程度相对低而平稳期间,半年周期的变化尤为明显,相对变幅约为40％—60％、井随平均太阳黑子数增加而增大．而年平均太阳黑子数峰值的1989年期间（＞120）,半年变化的相对变幅可达87％左右．