Long-term indirect indices of solar variability

Continuous direct records of solar variability are limited to the telescopic era covering approximately the past four centuries. For longer records one has to rely on indirect indices such as cosmogenic radionuclides. Their production rate is modulated by magnetic properties of the solar wind. Using a parameterisation of the solar activity and a Monte Carlo simulation model describing the interaction of the cosmic rays with the atmosphere, the production rate for each cosmogenic nuclide of interest can be calculated as a function of solar activity. Analysis of appropriate well-dated natural archives such as ice cores or tree rings offers the possibility to reconstruct the solar activity over many millennia. However, the interpretation of the cosmogenic nuclide records from these archives is difficult. The measured concentrations contain not only information on solar activity but also on changes in the geomagnetic field intensity and the transport from the atmosphere into the archive where, under ideal conditions, no further processes take place. Comparison of different nuclides (e.g. ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C) that are produced in a very similar way but exhibit a completely different geochemical behaviour, allows us to separate production effects from system effects.The presently available data show cyclic variability ranging from 11-year to millennial time scale periodicities with changing amplitudes, as well as irregularly distributed intervals of very low solar activity (so called minima, e.g. Maunder minimum) lasting typically 100 years.     

Solar and Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The significance of external influences on the environment of Earth and its atmosphere has become evident during recent years. Especially, on time scales of several hundred years, the cosmogenic isotope concentration during the Wolf-, Spoerer-, Maunder- and Dalton-Minimum indicates an increased cosmic ray flux. Because these grand minima of solar activity coincide with cold periods, a correlation of the Earth climate with the cosmic ray intensities is plausible. Any quantitative study of the effects of energetic particles on the atmosphere and environment of the Earth must address their transport to Earth and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere including their filtering by the terrestrial magnetosphere. The first problem is one of the fundamental problems in modern cosmic ray astrophysics, and corresponding studies began in the 1960s based on Parker’s cosmic ray modulation theory taking into account diffusion, convection, adiabatic deceleration, and (later) the drift of energetic particles in the global heliospheric magnetic field. It is well established that all of these processes determining the modulation of cosmic rays are depending on parameters that are varying with the solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, the galactic cosmic ray intensities close to Earth is the result of a complex modulation of the interstellar galactic spectrum within the heliosphere. The modern view of this cosmic ray modulation is summarized in our contribution.     

Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere: Requirements for Future Observations

Since the publication of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere in 1998 there has been great progress in understanding how and why cosmic rays vary in space and time. This paper discusses measurements that are needed to continue advances in relating cosmic ray variations to changes in solar and interplanetary activity and variations in the local interstellar environment. Cosmic ray acceleration and transport is an important discipline in space physics and astrophysics, but it also plays a critical role in defining the radiation environment for humans and hardware in space, and is critical to efforts to unravel the history of solar activity. Cosmic rays are measured directly by balloon-borne and space instruments, and indirectly by ground-based neutron, muon and neutrino detectors, and by measurements of cosmogenic isotopes in ice cores, tree-rings, sediments, and meteorites. The topics covered here include: what we can learn from the deep 2008–2009 solar minimum, when cosmic rays reached the highest intensities of the space era; the implications of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C isotope archives for past and future solar activity; the effects of variations in the size of the heliosphere; opportunities provided by the Voyagers for discovering the origin of anomalous cosmic rays and measuring cosmic-ray spectra in interstellar space; and future space missions that can continue the exciting exploration of the heliosphere that has occurred over the past 50 years.     

Neutron Monitor Records in Broader Historical Context

Man-made neutron monitors have provided a continuous detailed record of the cosmic-ray flux over only about the last 5 decades. Fortunately, nature operates its own detectors and offers the opportunity to extend the cosmic-ray records over much longer time scales. Two different types of `natural detectors' can be distinguished. The first is based on long lived radionuclides that are produced by cosmic-ray interactions in the atmosphere and subsequently become stored in archives such as ice sheets or tree rings. The second type are rocks that are exposed to cosmic-rays at a certain time and from then on integrate the production of cosmogenic nuclides over the whole exposure time. The analysis of ¹⁰Be in polar ice cores and ¹⁴C in tree rings clearly reveals solar and geomagnetic modulation of the cosmic-ray flux on different time scales ranging from decades (11-year Schwabe cycle) to millennia. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

10Be in Ice Cores and 14C in Tree Rings: Separation of Production and Climate Effects

Cosmogenic radionuclides are more and more used in solar activity reconstructions. However, the cosmogenic radionuclide signal also contains a climate component. It is therefore crucial to eliminate the climate information to allow a better interpretation of the reconstructed solar activity indices. In this paper the method of principal components is applied to ¹⁰Be data from two ice cores from opposite hemispheres as well as to ¹⁴C data from tree rings. The analysis shows that these records are dominated by a common signal which explains about 80% of the variance on multi decadal to multi millennial time scales, reflecting their common production rate. The second and third components are significantly different for ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be. They are interpreted as system effects introduced by the transport of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C from the atmosphere where they are produced to the respective natural archives where they are stored. Principal component analysis improves significantly extraction of the production signal from the cosmogenic isotope data series, which is more appropriate for astrophysical and terrestrial studies.     

Interstellar-Terrestrial Relations: Variable Cosmic Environments, The Dynamic Heliosphere, and Their Imprints on Terrestrial Archives and Climate

In recent years the variability of the cosmic ray flux has become one of the main issues interpreting cosmogenic elements and especially their connection with climate. In this review, an interdisciplinary team of scientists brings together our knowledge of the evolution and modulation of the cosmic ray flux from its origin in the Milky Way, during its propagation through the heliosphere, up to its interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere, resulting, finally, in the production of cosmogenic isotopes in the Earth’ atmosphere. The interpretation of the cosmogenic isotopes and the cosmic ray – cloud connection are also intensively discussed. Finally, we discuss some open questions.     

Origin and Evolution of the Light Nuclides

After a short historical (and highly subjective) introduction to the field, I discuss our current understanding of the origin and evolution of the light nuclides D, ³He, ⁴He, ⁶Li, ⁷Li, ⁹Be, ¹⁰B and ¹¹B. Despite considerable observational and theoretical progress, important uncertainties still persist for each and every one of those nuclides. The present-day abundance of D in the local interstellar medium is currently uncertain, making it difficult to infer the recent chemical evolution of the solar neighborhood. To account for the observed quasi-constancy of ³He abundance from the Big Bang to our days, the stellar production of that nuclide must be negligible; however, the scarce observations of its abundance in planetary nebulae seem to contradict this idea. The observed Be and B evolution as primaries suggests that the source composition of cosmic rays has remained ∼constant since the early days of the Galaxy, a suggestion with far reaching implications for the origin of cosmic rays; however, the main idea proposed to account for that constancy, namely that superbubbles are at the source of cosmic rays, encounters some serious difficulties. The best explanation for the mismatch between primordial Li and the observed “Spite-plateau” in halo stars appears to be depletion of Li in stellar envelopes, by some yet poorly understood mechanism. But this explanation impacts on the level of the recently discovered early “⁶Li plateau”, which (if confirmed), seriously challenges current ideas of cosmic ray nucleosynthesis.     

Cosmogenic Radionuclides as an Extension of the Neutron Monitor Era into the Past: Potential and Limitations

The cosmogenic radionuclides, ¹⁰Be, ¹⁴C and others, provide a record of the paleo-cosmic radiation that extends >10,000 years into the past. They are the only quantitative means at our disposal to study the heliosphere prior to the commencement of routine sunspot observations in the 17th century. The cosmogenic radionuclides are primarily produced by secondary neutrons generated by the galactic cosmic radiation, and can be regarded, in a sense, as providing an extrapolation of the neutron monitor era into the past. However, their characteristics are quite different from the man-made neutron monitor in several important respects: (1) they are sensitive to somewhat lower cosmic ray energies; (2) their temporal resolution is ～1 to 2 years, being determined by the rapidity with which they are sequestered in ice, biological, or other archives; (3) the statistical precision for annual data is very poor (～19%); however it is quite adequate (～5% for 22-year averages) to study the large variations (±40%) that have occurred in the paleo-cosmic ray record in the past between grand solar minima and maxima. The data contains “noise” caused by local meteorological effects, and longer-term climate effects, and the use of principal component analysis to separate these “system” effects from production effects is outlined. The concentrations of ¹⁰Be decreased by a factor of two at the commencement of Holocene, the present-day “interglacial”, due to a 100% increase in the ice accumulation rates in polar regions. The use of the ¹⁰Be flux to study heliospheric properties during the last glacial is discussed briefly.     

The Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity over the Past 106–109 Years as Recorded by Cosmogenic Nuclides in Meteorites and Terrestrial Samples

Concentrations of stable and radioactive nuclides produced by cosmic ray particles in meteorites allow us to track the long term average of the primary flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). During the past ～10 Ma, the average GCR flux remained constant over timescales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years, and, if corrected for known variations in solar modulation, also during the past several years to hundreds of years. Because the cosmic ray concentrations in meteorites represent integral signals, it is difficult to assess the limits of uncertainty of this statement, but they are larger than the often quoted analytical and model uncertainties of some 30%. Time series of concentrations of the radionuclide ¹⁰Be in terrestrial samples strengthen the conclusions drawn from meteorite studies, indicating that the GCR intensity on a ～0.5 million year scale has remained constant within some ±10% during the past ～10 million years. The very long-lived radioactive nuclide ⁴⁰K allows to assess the GCR flux over about the past one billion years. The flux over the past few million years has been the same as the longer-term average in the past 0.5–1 billion years within a factor of ～1.5. However, newer data do not confirm a long-held belief that the flux in the past few million years has been higher by some 30–50% than the very long term average. Neither does our analysis confirm a hypothesis that the iron meteorite data indicate a ～150 million year periodicity in the cosmic ray flux, possibly related to variations in the long-term terrestrial climate.     

Stochastic Acceleration of Energetic Particles in the Heliosphere

In this paper we assess possible roles of stochastic acceleration by random electric field and plasma motion in the production and transport of energetic particles in the heliosphere. Stochastic acceleration can occur in the presence of multiple small-scale magnetohydrodynamic waves propagating in different directions. Usually, this type of stochastic acceleration is closely related to particle pitch angle scattering or parallel diffusion. Given the values of the parallel diffusion coefficient inferred from the observations of cosmic ray modulation or other energetic particle phenomena in the heliosphere, stochastic acceleration by small-scale waves is much slower than acceleration by shock waves and it is also much slower than adiabatic cooling by the expansion of the solar wind; thus it is considered as inefficient for producing heliospheric energetic particles or for the modulation of cosmic rays. Another type of stochastic acceleration occurs when particles go through random compressions or expansions due to large-scale plasma motion. This acceleration mechanism could be very fast when the correlation time of the fluctuations in plasma compression is short compared to the diffusion time. Particle acceleration by an ensemble of small shock waves or intermittent long wavelength compressible turbulence belongs to this category. It tends to establish an asymptotic p ^?3 universal distribution function quickly if there is no or little large-scale adiabatic cooling. Such a particle distribution will contain an infinite amount of pressure. Back reaction from the pressure is expected to modify the amplitude of plasma waves to an equilibrium state. At that point, the pressure of accelerated particles must remain finite and the accelerated particles could approach a p ^?5 distribution function.     

GeV Particle Acceleration in Solar Flares and Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) Events

Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events represent the most energetic class of solar energetic particle (SEP) events, requiring acceleration processes to boost ?1?GeV ions in order to produce showers of secondary particles in the Earth’s atmosphere with sufficient intensity to be detected by ground-level neutron monitors, above the background of cosmic rays. Although the association of GLE events with both solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is undisputed, the question arises about the location of the responsible acceleration site: coronal flare reconnection sites, coronal CME shocks, or interplanetary shocks? To investigate the first possibility we explore the timing of GLE events with respect to hard X-ray production in solar flares, considering the height and magnetic topology of flares, the role of extended acceleration, and particle trapping. We find that 50% (6 out of 12) of recent (non-occulted) GLE events are accelerated during the impulsive flare phase, while the remaining half are accelerated significantly later. It appears that the prompt GLE component, which is observed in virtually all GLE events according to a recent study by Vashenyuk et al. (Astrophys. Space Sci. Trans. 7(4):459–463, 2011), is consistent with a flare origin in the lower corona, while the delayed gradual GLE component can be produced by both, either by extended acceleration and/or trapping in flare sites, or by particles accelerated in coronal and interplanetary shocks.     

Galactic Cosmic Rays and the Light Elements

The study of the light elements abundances in low metallicity stars offers a unique way to learn about the past content of our Galaxy in energetic particles (EPs). This study teaches us that either the light elements are not produced by cosmic rays interactions in the interstellar medium (ISM), as has been thought for 30 years, or the cosmic rays are not what one usually thinks they are, namely standard interstellar material accelerated by the shock waves generated by supernova explosions. In any case, we have to revise our understanding of the EPs in the Galaxy. Relying on the observational evidence about Li, Be and B Galactic evolution as well as about the distribution of massive stars, we show that most of the EPs responsible for the production of light elements must be accelerated inside superbubbles, as is probably the case for the standard Galactic cosmic rays as well.     

Solar cosmic radiation during August 1972

Low energy cosmic rays produced by the spectacular series of solar flares in August 1972 are reviewed. Satellite observations of electrons, protons and alpha particles are compared. The proton differential energy spectrum is discussed at certain key times during the events. Three energetic storm particle events were produced over the time period covered by the detailed analysis, 2–11 August. The origin of the cosmic ray square wave on 5 August is discussed. Measurements of heavy ions are available both from Pioneer 10 and from a high latitude rocket flight on 4 August.The literature survey for this review was concluded in August 1975.     

What do Cosmogenic Isotopes Tell us About Past Solar Forcing of Climate?

In paleoclimate studies, cosmogenic isotopes are frequently used as proxy indicators of past variations in solar irradiance on centennial and millennial timescales. These isotopes are spallation products of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting Earth's atmosphere, which are deposited and stored in terrestrial reservoirs such as ice sheets, ocean sediments and tree trunks. On timescales shorter than the variations in the geomagnetic field, they are modulated by the heliosphere and thus they are, strictly speaking, an index of heliospheric variability rather than one of solar variability. Strong evidence of climate variations associated with the production (as opposed to the deposition) of these isotopes is emerging. This raises a vital question: do cosmic rays have a direct influence on climate or are they a good proxy indicator for another factor that does (such as the total or spectral solar irradiance)? The former possibility raises further questions about the possible growth of air ions generated by cosmic rays into cloud condensation nuclei and/or the modulation of the global thunderstorm electric circuit. The latter possibility requires new understanding about the required relationship between the heliospheric magnetic fields that scatter cosmic rays and the photospheric magnetic fields which modulate solar irradiance.     

Time-Variability in the Interstellar Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Effect of the Solar Journey on the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux at Earth

During the solar journey through galactic space, variations in the physical properties of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) modify the heliosphere and modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at the surface of the Earth, with consequences for the terrestrial record of cosmogenic radionuclides. One phenomenon that needs studying is the effect on cosmogenic isotope production of changing anomalous cosmic ray fluxes at Earth due to variable interstellar ionizations. The possible range of interstellar ram pressures and ionization levels in the low density solar environment generate dramatically different possible heliosphere configurations, with a wide range of particle fluxes of interstellar neutrals, their secondary products, and GCRs arriving at Earth. Simple models of the distribution and densities of ISM in the downwind direction give cloud transition timescales that can be directly compared with cosmogenic radionuclide geologic records. Both the interstellar data and cosmogenic radionuclide data are consistent with two cloud transitions, within the past 10,000 years and a second one 20,000–30,000 years ago, with large and assumption-dependent uncertainties. The geomagnetic timeline derived from cosmic ray fluxes at Earth may require adjustment to account for the disappearance of anomalous cosmic rays when the Sun is immersed in ionized gas.     

Solar flares as sources of energetic particles

In this paper a review is presented of the present status of our knowledge of solar flare phenomena with special emphasis on the production of suprathermal particles and their solar effects. Of these energetic particles electrons play an important role since they produce the X-ray and radiobursts observed during many flares. Also, during their slowing down to thermal energies they contribute to the heating of localized regions in the solar atmosphere, through energy exchange with the ambient electrons. Observable radiations of energetic protons, and other nuclei, are produced through nuclear interactions leading to the emissions of gamma-ray lines. Detectable fluxes of these gamma-ray lines are produced only in the most powerful flares. Also the nuclei that enter into deeper layers of the solar atmosphere transfer most of their kinetic energy to the ambient plasma.     

Energy Deposition in Planetary Atmospheres by Charged Particles and Solar Photons

We discuss here the energy deposition of solar FUV, EUV and X-ray photons, energetic auroral particles, and pickup ions. Photons and the photoelectrons that they produce may interact with thermospheric neutral species producing dissociation, ionization, excitation, and heating. The interaction of X-rays or keV electrons with atmospheric neutrals may produce core-ionized species, which may decay by the production of characteristic X-rays or Auger electrons. Energetic particles may precipitate into the atmosphere, and their collisions with atmospheric particles also produce ionization, excitation, and heating, and auroral emissions. Auroral energetic particles, like photoelectrons, interact with the atmospheric species through discrete collisions that produce ionization, excitation, and heating of the ambient electron population. Auroral particles are, however, not restricted to the sunlit regions. They originate outside the atmosphere and are more energetic than photoelectrons, especially at magnetized planets. The spectroscopic analysis of auroral emissions is discussed here, along with its relevance to precipitating particle diagnostics. Atmospheres can also be modified by the energy deposited by the incident pickup ions with energies of eV’s to MeV’s; these particles may be of solar wind origin, or from a magnetospheric plasma. When the modeling of the energy deposition of the plasma is calculated, the subsequent modeling of the atmospheric processes, such as chemistry, emission, and the fate of hot recoil particles produced is roughly independent of the exciting radiation. However, calculating the spatial distribution of the energy deposition versus depth into the atmosphere produced by an incident plasma is much more complex than is the calculation of the solar excitation profile. Here, the nature of the energy deposition processes by the incident plasma are described as is the fate of the hot recoil particles produced by exothermic chemistry and by knock-on collisions by the incident ions.     

The streaming of solar flare particles and plasma in interplanetary space

A review is given of the features of solar particle emissions which cause various terrestrial disturbances. Three types of corpuscular emissions, namely, solar cosmic rays, energetic storm protons and plasma clouds, are associated with intense solar flares. Outward streaming of the solar wind and of beams of enhanced activity originate from the quiescent solar corona. It is shown that these solar particles propagate through interplanetary space, being modulated in a systematic way by existing magnetic fields. Time variations of solar flare particle flux, and their energy spectrum, are discussed.     

Cosmic-ray lifetime in the galaxy: Experimental results and models

The containment lifetime of the cosmic radiation is a crucial parameter in the investigation of the cosmic-ray origin and plays an important role in the dynamics of the Galaxy. The separation of the cosmic-ray Be isotopes achieved by two satellite experiments is considered in this paper, and from the measured isotopic ratio between the radioactive ¹⁰Be (half-life = 1.5 × 10⁶ yr) and the stable ⁹Be, it is deduced that the cosmic rays propagate through matter with an average density of 0.24 ± 0.07 atoms cm^-3, lower than the traditionally quoted average density in the galactic disk of 1 atom cm^-3. This paper reviews the implications of this result for the cosmic-ray age mainly in the context of two models of confinement and propagation: the homogeneous model, normally identified with confinement to the galactic gaseous disk, and a diffusion model in which the cosmic rays extend into a galactic halo. The propagation calculations use:

1. a newly deduced cosmic-ray pathlength distribution.
2. a self-consistent model of solar modulation.
3. an up-to-date set of fragmentation cross sections.

The satellite results and their implications are compared with the information on the cosmic-ray age derived from other cosmic-ray radioactive nuclei and the measured differential energy spectrum of high-energy electrons. It is a major conclusion of this paper that in a homogeneous model the cosmic-ray age is 15(+7, -4) million years, i.e., about a factor 4 longer than early estimates based on the abundances of the light nuclei Li, Be, and B and a nominal interstellar density of 1 atom cm ^-3. The lifetime is even longer when the satellite results are applied to a diffusion halo model. The deduced traversed matter density, together with other astrophysical considerations, suggest the population of a galactic halo by the cosmic rays.