Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f _S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K _p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and K _p (t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.     

Turbulent fluctuations of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the magnetosheath and the low-latitude boundary layer formation: Multisatellite observations on March 2, 1996

The results of simultaneous analysis of plasma and magnetic field characteristics measured on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe, WIND and Geotail satellites on March 2, 1996, are presented. During these observations the INTERBALL/Tail Probe crossed the low-latitude boundary layer, and the WIND and Geotail satellites measured the solar wind’s and magnetosheath’s parameters, respectively. The plasma and magnetic field characteristics in these regions have been compared. The data of the Corall, Electron, and MIF instruments on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe satellite are analyzed. Fluctuations of the magnetic field components and plasma velocity in the solar wind and magnetosheath, measured onboard the WIND and Geotail satellites, are compared. The causes resulting in appearance of plasma jet flows in the low-latitude boundary layer are analyzed. The amplitude of magnetic field fluctuations in the magnetosheath for a studied magnetosphere boundary crossing is shown to exceed the magnetic field value below the magnetopause near the cusp. The possibility of local violation of pressure balance on the magnetopause is discussed, as well as penetration of magnetosheath plasma into the magnetosphere, as a result of magnetic field and plasma flux fluctuations in the magnetosheath.     

Statistical investigation of Heliospheric conditions resulting in magnetic storms: 2

This work is a continuation of investigation [1] of the behavior of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s parameters near the onset of geomagnetic storms for various types of solar wind streams. The data of the OMNI base for the 1976–2000 period are used in the analysis. The types of solar wind streams were determined, and the times of beginning (onsets) of magnetic storms were distributed in solar wind types as follows: CIR (121 storms), Sheath (22 storms), MC (113 storms), and “uncertain type” (367 storms). The growth of variations (hourly standard deviations) of the density and IMF magnitude was observed 5–10 hours before the onset only in the Sheath. For the CIR-, Sheath-and MC-induced storms the dependence between the minimum of the IMF B _z-component and the minimum of the D _st -index, as well as the dependence between the electric field E _y of solar wind and the minimum of the D _st -index are steeper than those for the “uncertain” solar wind type. The steepest D _st vs. B _z dependence is observed in the Sheath, and the steepest D _st vs. E _y dependence is observed in the MC.     

Peculiarities of long-wave radio bursts from solar flares preceding strong geomagnetic storms

Radio bursts in the frequency range of 100–1500 kHz, recorded in 1997–2000 on the INTERBALL-1 satellite during the solar flares preceding the strong geomagnetic storms with D _st < ?100 nT, are analyzed in this paper. The observed long-wave III-type radio bursts of solar origin at frequencies of 1460 and 780 kHz were characterized by large values of the flux S _f = 10^?15 ?10^?17 W/m² Hz and duration longer than 10 min. The rapid frequency drift of a modulated radio burst continued up to a frequency of 250 kHz, which testified that the exciting agent (a beam of energetic electrons) propagated from the Sun to the Earth. All such flares were characterized by the appearance of halo coronal mass ejections, observed by the LASCO/SOHO, and by the presence of a southward B_z-component of the IMF, measured on the ACE and WIND spacecraft. In addition, shortly after radio bursts, the INTERBALL-1 satellite has recorded the fluxes of energetic electrons with E > 40 keV.     

Families of periodic solutions in three-dimensional restricted three-body problem

Planar orbits of three-dimensional restricted circular three-body problem are considered as a special case of three-dimensional orbits, and the second-order monodromy matrices M (in coordinate z and velocity v _z ) are calculated for them. Semi-trace s of matrix M determines vertical stability of an orbit. If |s| ≤ 1, then transformation of the subspace (z, v _z ) in the neighborhood of solution for the period is reduced to deformation and a rotation through angle φ, cosφ = s. If the angle ? can be rationally expressed through 2π,φ = 2π·p/q, where p and q are integer, then a planar orbit generates the families of three-dimensional periodic solutions that have a period larger by a factor of q (second kind Poincareé periodic solutions). Directions of continuation in the subspace (z, v _z ) are determined by matrix M. If |s| < 1, we have two new families, while only one exists at resonances 1: 1 (s = 1) and 2: 1 (s = ?1). In the course of motion along the family of three-dimensional periodic solutions, a transition is possible from one family of planar solutions to another one, sometimes previously unknown family of planar solutions.     

Short increases of the fluxes of electrons with energies > 0.08 MeV at low-latitude (<Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis> < 2) regions of near-Earth space

We present the characteristics of short (duration less than 1 min) increases of the counting rate of electrons with energies >0.08 MeV observed in low-latitude (L < 2.0) regions of near-Earth space in the course of the GRIF experiment on the Spektr module of the Mir orbital station. The measurements were carried out using a set of instruments including X-ray and gamma-ray spectrometers, as well as detectors of electrons, protons, and nuclei with large and small geometrical factors, which allowed one to detect the fluxes of charged particles both in the region of the Earth’s radiation belts and in regions close to the geomagnetic equator. As a result of more than 1.5 years of observation, it is demonstrated that short increases in the intensity of electrons of subrelativistic energies are detected not only in the regions of the near-Earth space known as “precipitation zones” (1.7 < L < 2.5), but in high-latitude regions (up to the geomagnetic equator, L < 1.1) as well. Two types of increases of the electron counting rate are found: either fairly regular increases repeating on successive orbits or increases local in time. The latter type of increases can be caused by a short enhancement of electron flux on a given drift shell. The results of our measurements have shown that the duration of the detected increases in intensity can be rather short, as little as 20–30 s. Therefore, in the case of large amplitudes, such increases of the counting rate of electrons can imitate astrophysical events of the type of cosmic gamma-ray bursts in the detectors of hard X-ray and gamma radiation.     

Peculiarities of the formation of a thin current sheet in the Earth’s magnetosphere

We investigate the process of the self-consistent formation of a thin current sheet with a thickness close to the ion Larmor gyroradius in the presence of decreasing magnetic field’s normal component B_n. This behavior is typical of the current sheet of the Earth’s magnetospheric tail during geomagnetic substorms. It has been shown that, in a numerical model of the current sheet, based on the particle-in-cell method, the appearance of self-consistent electric field component E_y in the current sheet vicinity can lead to its significant thinning and, eventually, to the formation of a multiscale configuration with a thin current sheet (TCS) in the central region supported by transient particles. The structure of the resulting equilibrium is determined by the initial parameters of the model and by the particle dynamics during the sheet thinning. Under certain conditions, the particle drift in the crossed electric and magnetic fields leads to a significant portion of ions becoming trapped near the neutral sheet and, in this way, to the formation of a wider configuration with an embedded thin current sheet. The population of trapped particles produces diamagnetic negative currents that manifest in the form of negative wings at the periphery of the sheet. Correspondingly, in the direction perpendicular to the sheet, a nonmonotonic coordinate dependence of the magnetic field appears. The mechanisms of the evolution of the current sheet in the Earth’s magnetotail and the formation of a multiscale structure are discussed.     

Identification of sources of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations on the basis of proton aurora observations

The relationship between proton aurora and geomagnetic pulsations Pc1, which are an indicator of development of ion-cyclotron instability in the equatorial magnetosphere, are studied on the basis of the observations of proton aurora from the IMAGE satellite, observations of particle fluxes onboard the low-orbiting NOAA satellites, and geomagnetic pulsation observations at the Lovozero observatory. A conclusion is drawn that the subauroral spots in the proton emission projected into the magnetosphere near the plasmapause are two-dimensional images at the ionospheric “screen” of the region of intense scattering of energetic protons into the loss cone at the development of an ion-cyclotron instability.     

Sporadic structures and small-scale irregularity in the nighttime polar ionosphere in the period of high solar activity according to the data of radio occultation measurements on satellite-to-satellite paths

Results of the analysis of 327 sessions of radio occultation on satellite-to-satellite paths are presented. The data are taken in the nighttime polar ionosphere in the regions with latitudes of 67°–88°, and in the period of high solar activity from October 26, 2003 to November 9, 2003. Typical ionospheric changes in the amplitude and phase of decimeter radio waves on paths GPS satellites-CHAMP satellite are presented. It is demonstrated that these data make it possible to determine characteristics of the sporadic E _s structures in the lower ionosphere at heights of 75–120 km. Histograms of distribution of the lower and upper boundaries, thickness, and intensity of the E _s structures are presented. Dispersion and spectra of amplitude fluctuations of decimeter radio waves caused by small-scale irregularity of the ionospheric plasma are analyzed. The relation of the polar E _s structures and intensity of small-scale plasma irregularity to various manifestations of solar activity is discussed. The efficiency of monitoring the ionospheric disturbances caused by shock waves of the solar wind by the radio occultation method on satellite-to-satellite paths is demonstrated.     

Diurnal and longitudinal variations in the earth’s ionosphere in the period of solstice in conditions of a deep minimum of solar activity

The results of studies of longitudinal and LT variations in parameters of the ionosphere–plasmasphere system, obtained using the Global Self-Consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP), assimilation ionospheric model IRI Real-Time Assimilation Mapping (IRTAM), and satellite and ground-based observational data are presented in the paper. The study of the main morphological features of longitudinal and LT variations in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) and total electron content (TEC) depending on latitude in the winter solstice during a solar-activity minimum (December 22, 2009) is carried out. It is shown that the variations in foF2 and TEC, on the whole, are identical, and so mutually substitutable, while creating empirical models of these parameters in quiet geomagnetic conditions. The longitudinal and LT variations in both foF2 and TEC are within an order of magnitude everywhere except for the equator anomaly region, where LT variation is larger by an order of magnitude than longitudinal variation. According to the results of the study, in the American longitudinal sector at all latitudes of the Southern (summer) Hemisphere, maxima of foF2 and TEC are formed. The near-equatorial and high-latitudinal maxima are separated out from these. The estimate of the contribution into the longitudinal variation in foF2 and TEC for various local time sectors and at various latitudes has been obtained for the first time. In the Southern (summer) Hemisphere, longitudinal variation in foF2 and TEC is formed in the nighttime.     

Solar activity index for long-term ionospheric forecasts

Based on the comparison of solar activity indices (annual average values of the relative number of sunspots Rz₁₂ and solar radio emission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm F₁₂) with the ionospheric index of solar activity IG₁₂ for 1954–2013, we have found that the index F₁₂ is a more accurate (than Rz₁₂) indicator of solar activity for the long-term forecast of foF2 (the critical frequency of the F2-layer). This advantage of the F₁₂ index becomes especially significant after 2000 if the specific features of extreme ultraviolet radiation of the Sun are additionally taken into account in the minima of solar cycles, using an appropriate correction to F₁₂. Qualitative arguments are given in favor of the use of F₁₂ for the long-term forecast of both foF2 and other ionospheric parameters.     

Numerical simulation of effects of the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse in the outer ionosphere

The results of a numerical simulation of such parameters of the topside ionosphere as concentration N _e and temperature T _e of electrons, and concentration n(H⁺) and fluxes along the magnetic field lines Φ(H⁺) of H⁺ ions at an altitude of ～2000 km for the conditions of the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse are presented. The calculations were performed using the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere of the Earth (GSM TIP). It is shown that during the eclipse, in addition to a region of decreased values of T _e in the Northern Hemisphere and in the magnetically conjugate region in the Southern Hemisphere, regions of electron heating emerge in both hemispheres. Simultaneously, an extended region of decreased values of N _e comes into existence and moves behind the Moon’s shadow. Regions with decreased (down to ～30%) and enhanced (up to ～50%) concentrations of H⁺ ions are detected in the global distribution of these ions.     

Study of notches in the Earth’s plasmasphere based on data of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">MAGION-5</Emphasis> satellite

Depleted narrow (localized in longitude) regions (field tubes) in the plasmasphere, recently discovered in He⁺ radiation measurements on the IMAGE spacecraft, were first directly observed by the Magion-5 satellite. The low-density regions (notches) occupy <～ 10–30° in longitude and extend from L ～ 2–3 to the plasmasphere boundary in neighboring plasmasphere regions with larger densities. The Magion-5 data give evidence that in the low-density regions temperature is enhanced as compared to the neighboring denser plasmasphere regions. Formation of notches in the plasmasphere is, apparently, associated with AE intensification during weak magnetic storms, while strong magnetic storms usually result in the overall reduction of plasmasphere dimensions. However, even a strong magnetic storm on April 6–7, 2000 (max K _p = 9-and min D _st ～ ?290 nT), but accompanied by an isolated AE impulse, resulted in a density decrease only in the longitudinally limited post-midnight sector of the plasmasphere.     

Energy dependence of the characteristic decay time of proton fluxes in solar cosmic ray events

Energetic solar proton events within the energy interval 1–48 MeV at the stage of their decay are considered over the period of 1974–2001. The dependence of the characteristic decay time on the proton energy in the assumed power-law representation τ(E) =E ^?n is analyzed for the events with an exponential decay form. The dependence of n on the heliolongitude of the flare (the particles source on the Sun) is studied.     

On Saturn’s rotation relative to a center of mass under the action of the gravitational moments of the Sun and Jupiter

Saturn’s rotation relative to a center of mass is considered within an elliptic restricted three-body problem. It is assumed that Saturn is a solid under the action of gravity of the Sun and Jupiter. The motions of Saturn and Jupiter are considered elliptic with small eccentricities e_S and e_J, respectively; the mean motion of Jupiter n_J is also small. We obtain the averaged Hamiltonian function for a small parameter of ε = n_J and integrals of evolution equations. The main effects of the influence of Jupiter on Saturn’s rotation are described: (α) the evolution of the constant parameters of regular precession for the angular momentum vector I₂; (β) the occurrence of new libration zones of oscillations I₂ near the plane of the celestial equator parallel to the plane of the Jupiter’s orbit; (γ) the occurrence of additional unstable equilibria of vector I₂ at the points of the north and south poles of the celestial sphere and, as a result, the existence of homoclinic trajectories; and (δ) the existence of periodic trajectories with arbitrarily large periods near the homoclinic trajectory. It is shown that the effects of (β), (γ), and (δ) are caused by the eccentricity e of the Jupiter’s orbit and are practically independent of Jupiter’s mass (within satellite approximation).     

Radial propagation velocity of energetic particle injections according to measurements onboard the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cluster</Emphasis> satellites

Injections of energetic electrons with a dispersion over energies were observed during the February 23, 2004 (at about 03:20 UT) substorm onboard the Cluster satellites in the vicinity of perigee near the midnight meridian. The delays in the particle observation caused by the energy dependence of the magnetic drift velocities made it possible to determine the position and time of the beginning of the drift, tracing the trajectories of the leading center of particles back in time in the magnetospheric model. The comparisons of the measurements of four satellites allowed us to determine the radial propagation of the injection front with a velocity of 100–150 km/s at a distance of 7–9 R _E. The comparison with a few previous measurements shows a substantial slowing down of injections as they approached the Earth, and this confirms the prospects of this method for more detailed study of propagation of plasma injection into the inner magnetosphere.     

Observations of corotating solar wind structures at radio sounding by signals of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rosetta</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mars Express</Emphasis> spacecraft

In the implementation of the space projects Rosetta and Mars Express, a large-scale series of experiments has been carried out on radio sounding circumsolar plasma by decimeter (S-band) and centimeter (X-band) signals of the Rosetta comet probe (from October 3 to October 31, 2010) and the Mars Express satellite of Mars (from December 25, 2010 to March 27, 2011). It was found that in the phase of ingress the spacecraft behind the Sun, the intensity of the frequency fluctuations increases in accordance with a power function whose argument is the solar offset distance of radio ray path, and when the spacecraft is removed from the Sun (the egress phase), frequency fluctuations are reduced. Periodic strong increases in the fluctuation level, exceeding by a factor of 3–12 the background values of this value determined by the regular radial dependences, are imposed on the regular dependences. It was found that increasing the fluctuations of radio waves alternates with the periodicity m × T or n × T, where m = 1/2, n = 1, аnd T is the synodic period of the Sun’s rotation (T ≈ 27 days). It was shown that the corotating structures associated with the interaction regions of different speed fluxes are formed in the area of solar wind acceleration and at distances of 6–20 solar radii already have a quasi-stationary character.     

Study and comparison of the parameters of five hot flow anomalies at a bow shock front

Five hot flow anomalies (HFA) recorded by the Tail Probe of the INTERBALL satellite in 1996 are analyzed in present work. For the five chosen events the authors determined the characteristics of current sheets whose interaction with the bow shock front led to formation of an HFA, as well as the directions of external electric fields and the directions of motion of these HFAs over a shock front. The analysis of plasma convection in an HFA body is carried out; the average velocities of plasma motion in the HFA are determined in a coordinate system linked with the normal to a current layer and with the normal to the bow shock. According to the character of plasma convection in an HFA body, these five events may be divided into two types, which also differ in the direction of the motion over the front of the bow shock. In the first-type HFAs, the convection of plasma has a component directed from the intermediate region confirming its identification as a source of energy for the formation of an HFA. In the second-type HFAs, plasma motion from the intermediate region in leading and trailing parts is less expressed. This fact, as well as the great variation of peculiar velocities in the body of anomalies, allowed the assumption that second-type anomalies are nonstationary. Evidence is presented that the anomalies considered in the paper are bordered with shocks formed in solar wind passing a large-scale, decelerated body of heated plasma.     

Catalog of large-scale solar wind phenomena during 1976–2000

The main goal of this paper is to compile a catalog of large-scale phenomena in the solar wind over the observation period of 1976–2000 using the measurement data presented in the OMNI database. This work included several stages. At first the original OMNI database was supplemented by certain key parameters of the solar wind that determine the type of the solar wind stream. The following parameters belong to this group: the plasma ratio β, thermal (NkT) and kinetic (mNV ²) pressures of the solar wind, the ratio T/T _exp of measured and expected temperatures, gradients of the plasma velocity and density, and the magnetic field gradient. The results of visualization of basic plasma parameters that determine the character of the solar wind stream are presented on the website of the Space Research Institute, Moscow. Preliminary identification of basic types of the solar wind stream (FAST and SLOW streams, Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS), Corotating Interaction Region (CIR), EJECTA (or Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), Magnetic Cloud (MC), SHEATH (compression region before EJECTA/MC), rarified region RARE, and interplanetary shock wave IS) had been made with the help of a preliminary identification program using the preset threshold criteria for plasma and interplanetary magnetic field parameters. Final identification was done by comparison with the results of visual analysis of the solar wind data. In conclusion, histograms of distributions and statistical characteristics are presented for some parameters of various large-scale types of the solar wind.     

The Rate of Single Event Upsets in Electronic Circuits onboard Spacecraft

Models and methods in use for quantitative estimates of the occurrence of single event upsets in microchips of orbiting spacecraft are considered. A calculation and experimental technique for determining the rate of these effects is described, taking into account spatial and temporal distributions of the fluxes of high-energy particles in the space and their penetration through protective shields. Examples of its application for the orbit of the International Space Station are presented.