Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere: Requirements for Future Observations

Since the publication of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere in 1998 there has been great progress in understanding how and why cosmic rays vary in space and time. This paper discusses measurements that are needed to continue advances in relating cosmic ray variations to changes in solar and interplanetary activity and variations in the local interstellar environment. Cosmic ray acceleration and transport is an important discipline in space physics and astrophysics, but it also plays a critical role in defining the radiation environment for humans and hardware in space, and is critical to efforts to unravel the history of solar activity. Cosmic rays are measured directly by balloon-borne and space instruments, and indirectly by ground-based neutron, muon and neutrino detectors, and by measurements of cosmogenic isotopes in ice cores, tree-rings, sediments, and meteorites. The topics covered here include: what we can learn from the deep 2008–2009 solar minimum, when cosmic rays reached the highest intensities of the space era; the implications of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C isotope archives for past and future solar activity; the effects of variations in the size of the heliosphere; opportunities provided by the Voyagers for discovering the origin of anomalous cosmic rays and measuring cosmic-ray spectra in interstellar space; and future space missions that can continue the exciting exploration of the heliosphere that has occurred over the past 50 years.     

The Heliosphere in Time

The paleo-cosmic ray records are used to study the properties of the heliosphere and solar processes over the past 9300 years. They show that both varied greatly over that time, ranging from ～26 “Grand Minima” of duration 50–100 yr when the Sun was inactive, to periods similar to the past 50 years of strong solar activity. This shows that the detailed information regarding the heliosphere gained during the “space era” represents an extreme case, and is not representative of the majority of the past 9300 yr. The data confirm that the 11 and 22-year cycles of solar activity continued through the Spoerer and Maunder Grand Minima. Throughout the 9300 yr interval, “Grand Minima” usually occurred in groups of 2 to 4, similar to the group of four that occurred in the interval 1000–1800 AD. The groups are separated by ～1000 yr intervals without Grand Minima. Frequency spectra of the full 9300 yr record show that the heliospheric and solar phenomena exhibit >10 well-defined and persistent periodicities. We speculate that the solar dynamo exhibits a 2300 yr periodicity, wherein it alternates between two different states of activity. In the first (～800 yr duration) solar activity weakens greatly every 100–200 yr resulting in a sequence of Grand Minima, while in the other, the solar dynamo suffers smaller changes; the centenary scale solar and heliospheric changes are smaller, being similar to those that occurred in the interval 1890–1910. The paleo-cosmic ray evidence suggests that the Sun has now entered this more uniform period of activity, following the sequence of Grand Minima (Wolf, Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton) that occurred between 1000 and 1800 AD.     

The Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity over the Past 106–109 Years as Recorded by Cosmogenic Nuclides in Meteorites and Terrestrial Samples

Concentrations of stable and radioactive nuclides produced by cosmic ray particles in meteorites allow us to track the long term average of the primary flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). During the past ～10 Ma, the average GCR flux remained constant over timescales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years, and, if corrected for known variations in solar modulation, also during the past several years to hundreds of years. Because the cosmic ray concentrations in meteorites represent integral signals, it is difficult to assess the limits of uncertainty of this statement, but they are larger than the often quoted analytical and model uncertainties of some 30%. Time series of concentrations of the radionuclide ¹⁰Be in terrestrial samples strengthen the conclusions drawn from meteorite studies, indicating that the GCR intensity on a ～0.5 million year scale has remained constant within some ±10% during the past ～10 million years. The very long-lived radioactive nuclide ⁴⁰K allows to assess the GCR flux over about the past one billion years. The flux over the past few million years has been the same as the longer-term average in the past 0.5–1 billion years within a factor of ～1.5. However, newer data do not confirm a long-held belief that the flux in the past few million years has been higher by some 30–50% than the very long term average. Neither does our analysis confirm a hypothesis that the iron meteorite data indicate a ～150 million year periodicity in the cosmic ray flux, possibly related to variations in the long-term terrestrial climate.     

Neutron Monitor Records in Broader Historical Context

Man-made neutron monitors have provided a continuous detailed record of the cosmic-ray flux over only about the last 5 decades. Fortunately, nature operates its own detectors and offers the opportunity to extend the cosmic-ray records over much longer time scales. Two different types of `natural detectors' can be distinguished. The first is based on long lived radionuclides that are produced by cosmic-ray interactions in the atmosphere and subsequently become stored in archives such as ice sheets or tree rings. The second type are rocks that are exposed to cosmic-rays at a certain time and from then on integrate the production of cosmogenic nuclides over the whole exposure time. The analysis of ¹⁰Be in polar ice cores and ¹⁴C in tree rings clearly reveals solar and geomagnetic modulation of the cosmic-ray flux on different time scales ranging from decades (11-year Schwabe cycle) to millennia. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Long-term indirect indices of solar variability

Continuous direct records of solar variability are limited to the telescopic era covering approximately the past four centuries. For longer records one has to rely on indirect indices such as cosmogenic radionuclides. Their production rate is modulated by magnetic properties of the solar wind. Using a parameterisation of the solar activity and a Monte Carlo simulation model describing the interaction of the cosmic rays with the atmosphere, the production rate for each cosmogenic nuclide of interest can be calculated as a function of solar activity. Analysis of appropriate well-dated natural archives such as ice cores or tree rings offers the possibility to reconstruct the solar activity over many millennia. However, the interpretation of the cosmogenic nuclide records from these archives is difficult. The measured concentrations contain not only information on solar activity but also on changes in the geomagnetic field intensity and the transport from the atmosphere into the archive where, under ideal conditions, no further processes take place. Comparison of different nuclides (e.g. ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C) that are produced in a very similar way but exhibit a completely different geochemical behaviour, allows us to separate production effects from system effects.The presently available data show cyclic variability ranging from 11-year to millennial time scale periodicities with changing amplitudes, as well as irregularly distributed intervals of very low solar activity (so called minima, e.g. Maunder minimum) lasting typically 100 years.     

10Be Production in the Atmosphere by Galactic Cosmic Rays

Galactic cosmic ray nuclei and energetic protons produced in solar flares and accelerated by coronal mass ejections are the main sources of high-energy particles of extraterrestrial origin in near-Earth space and inside the Earth’s atmosphere. The intensity of galactic cosmic rays inside the heliosphere is strongly influenced by the modulation of the interstellar source particles on their way through interplanetary space. Among others, this modulation depends on the activity of the Sun, and the resulting intensity of the energetic particles in the atmosphere is an indicator of the solar activity. Therefore, rare isotopes found in historical archives and produced by spallation reactions of primary and secondary hadrons of cosmic origin in the atmosphere, so-called cosmogenic nuclides, can be used to reconstruct the solar activity in the past. The production rate of ¹⁰Be, one of the cosmogenic nuclides most adequate to study the solar activity, is presented showing its variations with geographic latitude and altitude and the dependence on different production cross-sections present in literature. In addition, estimates for altitude integrated production rates of ¹⁰Be at different locations since the early nineteen sixties are shown.     

Time-Variability in the Interstellar Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Effect of the Solar Journey on the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux at Earth

During the solar journey through galactic space, variations in the physical properties of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) modify the heliosphere and modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at the surface of the Earth, with consequences for the terrestrial record of cosmogenic radionuclides. One phenomenon that needs studying is the effect on cosmogenic isotope production of changing anomalous cosmic ray fluxes at Earth due to variable interstellar ionizations. The possible range of interstellar ram pressures and ionization levels in the low density solar environment generate dramatically different possible heliosphere configurations, with a wide range of particle fluxes of interstellar neutrals, their secondary products, and GCRs arriving at Earth. Simple models of the distribution and densities of ISM in the downwind direction give cloud transition timescales that can be directly compared with cosmogenic radionuclide geologic records. Both the interstellar data and cosmogenic radionuclide data are consistent with two cloud transitions, within the past 10,000 years and a second one 20,000–30,000 years ago, with large and assumption-dependent uncertainties. The geomagnetic timeline derived from cosmic ray fluxes at Earth may require adjustment to account for the disappearance of anomalous cosmic rays when the Sun is immersed in ionized gas.     

10Be in Ice Cores and 14C in Tree Rings: Separation of Production and Climate Effects

Cosmogenic radionuclides are more and more used in solar activity reconstructions. However, the cosmogenic radionuclide signal also contains a climate component. It is therefore crucial to eliminate the climate information to allow a better interpretation of the reconstructed solar activity indices. In this paper the method of principal components is applied to ¹⁰Be data from two ice cores from opposite hemispheres as well as to ¹⁴C data from tree rings. The analysis shows that these records are dominated by a common signal which explains about 80% of the variance on multi decadal to multi millennial time scales, reflecting their common production rate. The second and third components are significantly different for ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be. They are interpreted as system effects introduced by the transport of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C from the atmosphere where they are produced to the respective natural archives where they are stored. Principal component analysis improves significantly extraction of the production signal from the cosmogenic isotope data series, which is more appropriate for astrophysical and terrestrial studies.     

Energetic Particles and Corotating Interaction Regions in the Solar Wind

This paper reviews three important effects on energetic particles of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the solar wind that are formed at the leading edges of high-speed solar wind streams originating in coronal holes. A brief overview of CIRs and their important features is followed by a discussion of CIR-associated modulations in the galactic cosmic ray intensity, with an emphasis on observations made by spacecraft particle telescope ‘anti-coincidence’ guards. Such guards combine high counting rates (hundreds of counts/s) and a lower rigidity response than neutron monitors to provide detailed information on the relationship between cosmic ray modulations and CIR structure. The modulation of Jovian electrons by CIRs is then described. Finally, the acceleration of ions to energies of ～20 MeV/n in the vicinity of CIRs is reviewed.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.     

Interstellar-Terrestrial Relations: Variable Cosmic Environments, The Dynamic Heliosphere, and Their Imprints on Terrestrial Archives and Climate

In recent years the variability of the cosmic ray flux has become one of the main issues interpreting cosmogenic elements and especially their connection with climate. In this review, an interdisciplinary team of scientists brings together our knowledge of the evolution and modulation of the cosmic ray flux from its origin in the Milky Way, during its propagation through the heliosphere, up to its interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere, resulting, finally, in the production of cosmogenic isotopes in the Earth’ atmosphere. The interpretation of the cosmogenic isotopes and the cosmic ray – cloud connection are also intensively discussed. Finally, we discuss some open questions.     

Hard rock cosmic ray archaeology

Recent examinations of extraterrestrial materials exposed to cosmic rays for different intervals of time during the geological history of the solar system have generated a wealth of new information on the history of cosmic radiation. This information relates to the temporal variations in

1. the flux and energy spectrum of low energy (solar) protons of ? 10 MeV kinetic energy;
2. the flux and energy spectrum of (solar) heavy nuclei of Z > 20 of kinetic energy, 0.5–10 MeV/n;
3. the integrated flux of protons and heavier nuclei of ? 0.5 GeV kinetic energy, and
4. the flux and energy spectrum of nuclei of Z > 20 of medium energy — 100–2000 MeV/n kinetic energy.

The above studies are entirely based on the natural detector method which utilises two principal cosmogenic effects observed in rocks, (i) isotopic changes and (ii) changes in the crystalline structure of rock constituents, due to cosmogenic interactions. The information available to date in the field of hard rock cosmic ray archaeology refers to meteorites and lunar rocks/soil. Additional information based on study of cosmogenic effects in man-made materials exposed to cosmic radiation in space is also discussed. It is shown that the natural detectors inspite of their extreme simplicity have begun to provide cosmic ray information in a very quantitative and precise manner comparable to the most sophisticated electronic particle detectors. The single handicap in using the hard rock detectors is however the uncertainty regarding their manner of exposure, geometry etc. At present, a variety of techniques are being used to study the evolutionary history of extraterrestrial materials and as this field grows, uncertainties in cosmic ray archaeology will correspondingly decrease.     

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift at such times. In 2009, the ～2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by ～5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (～20° vs. ～14°), while solar wind B was significantly lower (～3.9 nT vs. ～5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including post-shock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the ～1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent ¹⁰Be-based reconstruction covering the past ～10⁴ years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to ?0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Spörer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of ～2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30–40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.     

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Rays at 1 AU During the Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU at solar minimum generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities such as those measured by neutron monitors, albeit with differences between solar polarity cycles. The unusual cycle 23/24 solar minimum was long-lasting with very low sunspot numbers and significantly reduced interplanetary magnetic field strength and solar wind dynamic pressure and turbulence, but also featured a heliospheric current sheet tilt that remained high for an extended period. Peak ACR intensities did not recover to the maximum values reached during the last two A>0 solar minima and just barely reached the last A<0 levels. However, GCR intensities in 2009 (neutron monitor rates and also at ～200 MeV/nucleon) were the highest recorded during the last 50 years, indicating their intensities were not as heavily modulated during their transport from the outer heliosphere. This unexpected difference in the behavior of ACRs and GCRs remains unexplained, but suggests that either the ACR source intensity may have weakened since the last A<0 epoch, or perhaps that ACR intensities at 1 AU in the ecliptic may be more sensitive than GCRs to the higher tilt angle. This seems plausible if the ACR source intensity is greater at low latitudes during A<0 cycles, while the GCR distribution at the heliospheric boundary is more uniform in latitude. Shortly after an abrupt increase in the current sheet tilt angle in late 2009, both ACR and GCR intensities showed dramatic decreases, marking the end of solar minimum modulation conditions for this cycle.     

The Local Interstellar Medium: Peculiar or Not?

The local Interstellar Medium (ISM) at the 500 pc scale is by many respects a typical place in our Galaxy made of hot and tenuous gas cavities blown by stellar winds and supernovae, that includes the 100 pc wide “Local Hot Bubble (LHB)”, dense and cold clouds forming the cavity “walls”, and finally diffuse and warm clouds embedded within the hot gas, such as the Local Interstellar Cloud (LIC) presently surrounding the Sun. A number of measurements however, including abundance data, have contradicted this “normality” of our interstellar environment. Some contradictions have been explained, some not. I review recent observations at different spatial scales and discuss those peculiarities. At all scales Johannes Geiss has played a major role. At the scale of the first hundred parsecs, there are at least three “anomalies”: (i) the peculiar Gould Belt (GB), (ii) the recently measured peculiar Deuterium abundance pattern, (iii) the low value of the local O, N and ³He gas phase abundances. I discuss here the possibility of a historical link between these three observations: the large scale phenomenon which has generated the Belt, a giant cloud impact or an explosive event could be the common origin. At the 50–100 parsec scale, some of the unexplained or contradictory measurements of the Local Bubble hot gas, including its EUV/soft X ray emissions, ion column-densities and gas pressure may at least partially be elucidated in the light of the newly discovered X-ray emission mechanism following charge transfer between solar wind high ions and solar system neutrals. The Local Bubble hot gas pressure and temperature may be lower than previously inferred. Finally, at the smaller scale of the local diffuse cloudlets (a few parsecs), the knowledge of their structures and physical states has constantly progressed by means of nearby star absorption spectroscopy. On the other hand, thanks to anomalous cosmic rays and pickup ions measurements, local abundances of ISM neutral species are now precisely derived and may be compared with the absorption data. Interestingly these comparisons are now accurate enough to reveal other (noninterstellar) sources of pickup ions. However the actual physical state of the ISM 10–20,000 A.U. ahead along the Sun trajectory, which will be the ambient interstellar medium in a few thousands years, remains unknown. Local Bubble hot gas or warm LIC-type gas? More EUV/UV spectroscopic data are needed to answer this question.     

How Well Do Experimental Results on Large Samples of Gas-Laden Amorphous Ice Duplicate Deep Impact’s Findings?

The findings of Deep Impact on the structure and composition of Tempel-1 are compared with our experimental results on large (20 cm diameter and up to 10 cm high) samples of gas-laden amorphous ice which does not contain dust. The mechanical ～tensile strength inferred for Tempel-1: up to 12 kPa is close to our experimental findings of 2–4 kPa. This means that Tempel-1 is as fluffy as our very fluffy, talcum like, ice sample. The thermal inertia: 30<I<100 W?K^?1?m^?2?s^1/2 is close to our value of 80. The density of 350±250 kg?m^?3, is close to our value of 250–300 kg?m^?3, taking into account an ice/silicate ratio of 1 in the comet, while we study pure ice. Surface morphological features, such as non-circular depressions and chaotic terrain, were observed in our experiments. The only small increase in the gas/water vapor ratio pre- and post-impact, suggest that in the area excavated by the impactor, the 135 K front did not penetrate deeper than a few meters. Altogether, the agreement between the findings of Deep Impact and our experimental results point to a loose agglomerate of ice grains (with a silicate-organic core), which was formed by a very gentle aggregation of the ice grains, without compaction.     

Neutron Monitor Response Functions

The neutron monitor provides continuous ground-based recording of the hadronic component in atmospheric secondary radiation which is related to primary cosmic rays. Simpson (1948) discovered that the latitude variation of the secondary hadronic component was considerably larger than the muon component suggesting the response of a neutron monitor is more sensitive to lower energies in the primary spectrum. The different methods of determining the neutron monitor response function of primary cosmic rays are reviewed and discussed including early and recent results. The authors also provide results from a new calculation (Clem, 1999) including angle dependent yield functions for different neutron monitor types which are calculated using a simulation of cosmic ray air showers combined with a detection efficiency simulation for different secondary particle species. Results are shown for IGY and NM64 configurations using the standard ¹⁰BF₃ detectors and the new ³He detectors to be used in the Spaceship Earth Project (Bieber et al., 1995). The method of calculation is described in detail and the results are compared with measurements and previous calculations. A summary of future goals is discussed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar and Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The significance of external influences on the environment of Earth and its atmosphere has become evident during recent years. Especially, on time scales of several hundred years, the cosmogenic isotope concentration during the Wolf-, Spoerer-, Maunder- and Dalton-Minimum indicates an increased cosmic ray flux. Because these grand minima of solar activity coincide with cold periods, a correlation of the Earth climate with the cosmic ray intensities is plausible. Any quantitative study of the effects of energetic particles on the atmosphere and environment of the Earth must address their transport to Earth and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere including their filtering by the terrestrial magnetosphere. The first problem is one of the fundamental problems in modern cosmic ray astrophysics, and corresponding studies began in the 1960s based on Parker’s cosmic ray modulation theory taking into account diffusion, convection, adiabatic deceleration, and (later) the drift of energetic particles in the global heliospheric magnetic field. It is well established that all of these processes determining the modulation of cosmic rays are depending on parameters that are varying with the solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, the galactic cosmic ray intensities close to Earth is the result of a complex modulation of the interstellar galactic spectrum within the heliosphere. The modern view of this cosmic ray modulation is summarized in our contribution.     

Origin and Evolution of the Light Nuclides

After a short historical (and highly subjective) introduction to the field, I discuss our current understanding of the origin and evolution of the light nuclides D, ³He, ⁴He, ⁶Li, ⁷Li, ⁹Be, ¹⁰B and ¹¹B. Despite considerable observational and theoretical progress, important uncertainties still persist for each and every one of those nuclides. The present-day abundance of D in the local interstellar medium is currently uncertain, making it difficult to infer the recent chemical evolution of the solar neighborhood. To account for the observed quasi-constancy of ³He abundance from the Big Bang to our days, the stellar production of that nuclide must be negligible; however, the scarce observations of its abundance in planetary nebulae seem to contradict this idea. The observed Be and B evolution as primaries suggests that the source composition of cosmic rays has remained ∼constant since the early days of the Galaxy, a suggestion with far reaching implications for the origin of cosmic rays; however, the main idea proposed to account for that constancy, namely that superbubbles are at the source of cosmic rays, encounters some serious difficulties. The best explanation for the mismatch between primordial Li and the observed “Spite-plateau” in halo stars appears to be depletion of Li in stellar envelopes, by some yet poorly understood mechanism. But this explanation impacts on the level of the recently discovered early “⁶Li plateau”, which (if confirmed), seriously challenges current ideas of cosmic ray nucleosynthesis.