A theoretical assessment of the feasibility of potential Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter radio occultation observations of the lunar ionosphere

The existence of a “dense” lunar ionosphere has been controversial for decades. Positive ions produced from the lunar surface and exosphere are inferred to have densities that are $?$${10}^6$ – ${10}^7$ m^?3 near the surface and smaller at higher altitudes, yet electron densities derived from radio occultation measurements occasionally exceed these values by orders of magnitude. For example, about 4% of the single-spacecraft radio occultation measurements from Kaguya/SELENE were consistent with peak electron densities of $~$$3\times {10}^8$ m^?3. Space plasmas should be neutral on macroscopic scales, so this represents a substantial discrepancy. Aditional observations of electron densities in the lunar ionosphere are critical to resolving this longstanding paradox. Here we theoretically assess whether radio occultation observations using two-way coherent S-band radio signals from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) spacecraft could provide useful measurements of electron densities in the lunar ionosphere. We predict the uncertainty in a single LRO radio occultation measurement of electron density to be $~$$3\times {10}^8$ m^?3, comparable to occasional observations by Kaguya/SELENE of a dense lunar ionosphere. Thus an individual profile from LRO is unlikely to reliably detect the lunar ionosphere; however, averages of multiple ($~$10) LRO profiles acquired under similar geophysical and viewing conditions should be able to make reliable detections. An observing rate of six ingress occultations per day ($~$2000 per year) could be achieved with minimal impact on current LRO operations. This rate compares favorably with the 378 observations reported from the single-spacecraft experiment on Kaguya/SELENE between November 2007 and June 2009. The large number of observations possible for LRO would be sufficient to permit wide-ranging investigations of spatial and temporal variations in the poorly understood lunar ionosphere. These findings strengthen efforts to conduct such observations with LRO.