基于带漂移的布朗运动的民用航空发动机实时性能可靠性预测

以民用航空发动机为研究对象,运用性能退化可靠性理论和随机过程方法,对发动机的可靠性进行了研究.通过分析发动机性能退化过程,建立了基于带漂移的布朗运动的可靠性模型,利用布朗运动特性研究了基于当前状态的退化时间预测方法,实例证明,该方法可操作性强,易于工程实现,为航空公司进行发动机机队科学管理提供了基础. 

Real-time performance reliability prediction for civil aviation engines based on Brownian motion with drift

This paper makes study of the civil aviation aircraft engine. The reliability of the engine has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and stochastic process methods. First, through analyzing the performance degradation process of the engine, the reliability model based on Brownian motion with drift is built. Then, we develop the degradation-time prediction method to current degradation signals by using the characteristic of Brownian motion. We apply these models to practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project. Also, it provides a foundation for the scientific management of engine fleet of airlines.