| 基于BP神经网络的民航安全预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁松滨,王飞.基于BP神经网络的民航安全预测方法研究[J].中国民航学院学报,2006,24(1):53-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁松滨 王飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民用航空学院研究生部,天津300300 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国民用航空总局教育基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了对民航系统安全运行状态进行科学的分析和预测。针对反映民航系统安全运行状态的重要指标之一——飞行事故万时率，采用BP神经网络的时间序列非线性预测模型及方法，对其进行了分析研究和仿真验证，计算结果表明，该预测方法是可行的，并与实际具有较好的一致性。
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| 关 键 词： | 民用航空 系统安全 预测 BP神经网络 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-5000(2006)01-0053-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-23 |
Study on Civil Aviation Safety Forecasting Method Based on BP Neural Network |
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| DING Song-bin,WANG Fei.Study on Civil Aviation Safety Forecasting Method Based on BP Neural Network[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2006,24(1):53-56. |
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| Authors: | DING Song-bin WANG Fei |
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| Institution: | Graduate School , CAUC , Tianjin 300300,China |
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| Abstract: | In order to analyze and forecast the civil aviation system safety operation state scientifically,nonlinear forecasting model and method based on BP neural network are used to study and simulate the indicator of 10 000-hour-flight accident-rate which is one of the important indicators of civil aviation system safety operation state. The result shows that the forecasting method is feasible and has good consistency with reality. |
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| Keywords: | civil aviation system safety forecasting BP neural net work |
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