基于灰色关联分析的中国二氧化碳排放量影响因素分析(英文)

如何实现中国碳减排目标已经成为当前的研究热点,为完成减排目标首先要研究中国CO2排放量的影响因素。首先利用灰色关联分析方法选择与中国CO2排放量灰色关联度最高的3个变量:能源消费量、第三产业比重、外贸依存度。协整检验表明中国CO2排放量和3个影响因素之间存在长期协整关系,本文同时建立中国CO2排放量的长期协整方程和短期误差修正模型。运用误差修正模型得到的中国CO2排放量预测值与真实值的比较和得到的统计值均表明本文建立的模型有较好的解释能力和信度。

GRA BASED ANALYSIS ON FACTORS INFLUENCING CO2 EMISSIONS IN CHINA

How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2emissions has been an academic focus in China recently.The factors influencing CO2emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target.Firstly,three influential factors,the energy consumption,the proportion of tertiary industry in gross domestic product(GDP),and the degree of dependence on foreign trade,are carefully selected,since all of them have closer grey relation with China’s CO2emissions compared with others when the grey relational analysis(GRA)method is applied.The study highlights co-integration relation of these four variables using the co-integration analysis method.And then a long-term co-integration equation and a short-term error correction model of China’s CO2emissions are developed.Finally,the comparison is exerted between the forecast value and the actual value of China’s CO2emissions based on error correction model.The results and the relevant statistics tests show that the proposed model has better explanation capability and credibility.