| Abstract: | Although initially we will know virtually nothing about any society that our microwave search detects, in all likelihood their society will be far older than ours. It will have evolved mechanisms to ensure longevity. A pessimistic hypothesis would lead us to expect a powerful, aggressive and self-serving society that has vanquished all challengers. If this hypothesis were true, a response by us to their signal could be dangerous. An optimistic hypothesis, that it is the peaceful societies that survive, would lead us to expect a benign or even friendly civilization. If this second hypothesis were true, our response would gratify their scientific curiosity and perhaps lead to a useful exchange of information. Convergent evidence from the quantitative analyses of long-term historical trends and computer modeling support the optimistic hypothesis. Although not conclusive, this analysis suggests that revealing our presence in the Universe is a low risk activity. |
