| 复杂系统研制费用Weibull分布的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐哲. 复杂系统研制费用Weibull分布的研究[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 1998, 24(2): 224-227 |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐哲 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学 管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 863航天高技术领域基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 科学地估算研制费用为项目立项决策和科学分配经费提供了依据.Weibull时间费用模型是一种描述大型复杂系统人力资源问题的计量经济模型,也称生命周期模型.本文分析了Weibull分布特点,特征参数的估算方法及Weibull时间费用模型的几种模式,给出了模型的理论解释.结合具体实例用经验估算法对模型参数进行了估计,得到的预算费用比较符合实际系统研制费用的发生规律.研究表明,Weibull时间费用模型为预测大型复杂系统研制费用提供了有效的方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 概率分布 预测 科研管理 方案论证 费用分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 1996-10-23 |
Study on Weibull Distribution for Large Scale Complex System's R&D Budge Expense Estimation |
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| Xu Zhe,Feng Yuncheng. Study on Weibull Distribution for Large Scale Complex System's R&D Budge Expense Estimation[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1998, 24(2): 224-227 |
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| Authors: | Xu Zhe Feng Yuncheng |
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| Affiliation: | Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,School of Management |
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| Abstract: | Study on budget of expense for large complex systems is the primary problem in the filed of cost analysis.Weibull timedependent expense model is an econometric model about manpower and finance for large complex systems,and also called life cycle model.In this paper Weibull distribution characteristics,parameter estimation methods and several models are studied,Weibull theoretical explanation are given.Finally,a case is analyzed,by making use of experience estimation method to estimate characteristic parameter,then gain R&;D expense budget distribution.It provides that the distribution can well accord with the practical system in project budget stage. |
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| Keywords: | probabilitic distributions forecasting research and development management project approachment cost analysis |
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