层次化模块化可用性分析方法的误差分析

通过层次化模块化分解技术,将复杂系统动态故障树分解为相互独立的模块,对独立模块分别进行可用度求解,再利用自下而上递归的方法实现复杂系统可用性分析.提出和推导出等效时变的可用度参数模型,分析了层次化模块化可用性分析方法的误差成因和相关影响,给出了故障相关和维修相关条件下的误差定义,定量研究了误差分布区域及其影响因素,提出了层次化模块化可用性分析方法的适用条件和应用原则,实例分析证明了该方法的有效性. 

Error analysis based on hierarchical availability analysis

With the hierarchical decomposition technology, the dynamic fault tree of complex system can be simplified into individual modular, which assumes that there is no intrinsic relation with other modulars. The equivalent time-variable availability parameters of individual modular such as equivalent failure rate and equivalent repair rate were deduced, the system availability can be obtained through recursive algorithm with equivalent availability parameters from bottom to up. Actually, the hierarchical availability analysis method exist some errors comparing with availability analysis based on whole states due to the hierarchical decomposition. The cause of error formation because of failure dependence and repair dependence was analyzed, the error definition in different situation was investigated and the error distribution field was calculated. The suitable condition and application principle were presented to improve the modeling error of hierarchical availability analysis. The application indicates that error analysis of hierarchical availability analysis is helpful to reliability analysis of complex system.