利用相似周方法预测第24活动周开始时间

利用相似周方法对第24活动周的开始时间与第23活动周下降相后期的太阳黑子数进行了预报.根据第23周已经出现的特征参量和下降相的形态特征,选取9,10,11,15,17和20等六个太阳活动周作为第23周下降相的相似周,对第24周开始时间进行预报.预报结果显示,第24活动周的开始时间为2007年5±1月,黑子数平滑月均极小值为7.1±2.6,第23太阳活动周长度为11.1年.与其他研究者的预报结果相比较,本文给出的结果与文献11]和12]及MSFC的结果比较一致.通过对相似周方法在下降相预测太阳活动周结束时间的研究讨论,及对第23周上升阶段的太阳黑子数和F10.7平滑月均值预报结果的评估,可以看出,相似周预报方法在太阳活动周长期预报中是很有应用价值的. 

Prediction of the Onset of Solar Cycle 24 by Similar Cycle Method

In this paper, ＂Similar Cycle＂ method is introduced and applied to predict the onset of solar cycle 24. Meanwhile, the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers of the last cycle descending phase are predicted. According to the characterestics of cycle 23, six cycles （9, 10, 11, 15, 17 and 20） are selected as the similar cycles of cycle 23 and was used to predict the beginning of cycle 24. The results are: （1） The beginning of cycle 24 will occur in the period from April to June, 2007. The length of cycle 23 may be 11.1 years. （2） The minimum smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers is 7.1±2.6. Compared with other predictions, the onset time of cycle 24 in this paper is close to that of Ref.11],12] and MSFC. From the discussion on the solar cycle prediction methods, ＂Similar cycle＂ is thought to be an effective method to the prediction of long-term solar cycle evolution. It could be used to predict the ending time of a solar cycle with a leading time of 3-4 years or more soon after the maximum.