| 基于遗传EM算法的航班延误状态空间模型(英文) |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈海燕,王建东,徐涛.基于遗传EM算法的航班延误状态空间模型(英文)[J].南京航空航天大学学报(英文版),2011,28(3). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈海燕 王建东 徐涛 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学计算机科学与技术学院,南京,210016,中国
2. 中国民航大学计算机科学与技术学院,天津,300300,中国 |
| |
| 基金项目： | Supported by the High Technology Research and Development Programme of China(2006AA12A106)~~ |
| |
| 摘 要： | 航班运行过程的高度动态性和随机性,航班延误因素的复杂性和不确定性导致航班延误实时预测成为难题。控制领域的动态数据驱动方法为该问题提供了一种解决方案。然而,要想运用动态数据驱动方法,首先必须建立航班延误状态空间模型来表示系统状态之间、状态与系统输入输出之间的关系。本文对单机延误事件序列进行了分析,创建了一种航班延误状态空间模型,并对其中的输入控制量进行了重点建模。在历史航班运行数据集上,采用遗传EM算法对模型参数进行了极大似然估计,并同时验证了遗传EM算法在优化参数估计和提高计算效率方面的优势。最后,采用Kol-mogorov-Smirnov方法对模型实例进行了假设检验,检验结果表明,所选模型具有较好的拟合优度。
|
| 关 键 词： | 航班 延误 预测 动态数据驱动应用系统 遗传EM算法 |
FLIGHT DELAY STATE-SPACE MODEL BASED ON GENETIC EM ALGORITHM |
| |
| Chen Haiyan,Wang Jiandong,Xu Tao.FLIGHT DELAY STATE-SPACE MODEL BASED ON GENETIC EM ALGORITHM[J].Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics,2011,28(3). |
| |
| Authors: | Chen Haiyan Wang Jiandong Xu Tao |
| |
| Institution: | Chen Haiyan1,Wang Jiandong1,Xu Tao2(1.College of Computer Science and Technology,NUAA,29 Yudao Street,Nanjing,210016,P.R.China,2.College of Computer Science and Technology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin,300300,P.R.China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Flight delay prediction remains an important research topic due to dynamic nature in flight operation and numerous delay factors.Dynamic data-driven application system in the control area can provide a solution to this problem.However,in order to apply the approach,a state-space flight delay model needs to be established to represent the relationship among system states,as well as the relationship between system states and input/output variables.Based on the analysis of delay event sequence in a single flig... |
| |
| Keywords: | flight delay predictions dynamic data-driven application system genetic EM algorithm |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
