Evolution and logistics of an early lunar base

The planned construction of a permanently manned space station in low earth orbit has reopened the discussion about the establishment of a manned lunar base within the next 25 years for exploration of the Moon and space. Several studies demonstrate that a lunar base very modest in size may cost $50 to 90 billion spread over 25 years which would fit into the expected NASA budget for this period. Having these cost in mind the authors present a concept having a greater effectiveness based on the following operational characteristics: (1) The development of a low cost heavy-lift launch vehicle for cargo transportation and propellant supply reduces the specific transportation cost by one order of magnitude compared to the existing Space Shuttle system. (2) Orbital transfer vehicles with LOX/LH2 technology should be preferred over advanced propulsion systems because of proved technology and cost reduction by utilization of lunar produced LOX. (3) The evolution of the lunar base towards a lunar colony and manufacturing facility could only be initiated by a powerful transportation system allowing for cost-effective space construction projects and manned spaceflight to other planets.The lunar base program of this paper is based on a schedule considering a 8 years development, 5 years lunar base assembly and 20 years operational phase during which the lunar crew will increase from 60 to 180 people. Launch rates will be 10 shuttle launches and 10 HLLV launches p.a. at the average. Development costs of the transportation and lunar base system will amount to $29 billion. Adding hardware and operational costs for lunar base assembly results in the acquisition cost of $49 billion. Total life cycle costs are estimated to be in the order of $101 billion considering a 20 years operational phase which will cost $2.6 billion p.a. at the average. For the 2508 man-years spent in lunosphere the relative cost will be $40.2 million per man-year of which space transportation will cost $25.0 million per man-year.