我国国债宏观经济效应的实证研究

采用多元Granger因果测试模型和1980～2003年的相关数据实证检验我国国债的宏观经济效应。实证结果表明，我国国债融资实际上并未对宏观经济产生显著影响。这主要是因为我国利用国债融资的时间较短，国债的宏观经济效应尚未显现；利用国债融资的多为基础设施项目，周期较长，真正发挥效应尚需一段时间；尤其是国债资金管理不到位，使得国债融资未对实体经济作出积极贡献。因此，政府当务之急是完善国债投资管理和审批体制，增加国债资金运用的透明度，加大对国债资金管理和使用的监督和检查力度，提高国债项目的投资效益。

Empirical Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of Government Debt in China

This paper has investigated the macroeconomic effects of government debt.To do so,we detrend real GDP,private investment,resident consumption and balance of payments,utilize Multi variable Granger causality test and data annually from 1980 to 2003 in China.The results show that the macroeconomic effects of government debt are not significent in China.The first reason is that it is not long for government debt financing and its macroeconomic effects do not emerge.Second,government debt financing mostly is government debt fund is misgoverned,it can not exert an active influence on actual economy.So,government should perfect administration system of government debts investment and examining and approving,advance transparence of fund using,strengthen supervising and examining,and increase earning of government debt project.