液体推进剂贮运可靠性模糊故障树方法研究

对液体推进剂在贮运过程中发生的泄漏情况进行了深入分析，建立了故障树模型，并讨论了底事件对泄漏事件的影响。针对实际情况下泄漏事件的发生概率具有模糊性和不确定性的特点，将模糊集理论引入故障树分析法，将基本底事件发生概率描述为一模糊数，从而估算出整个系统的模糊故障率。该方法能快速准确的检测和诊断液体推进剂贮运的潜在故障，对推进剂安全贮运有一定裨益。

Fuzzy Fault Tree Method of the Liquid Propellant Store and Transport Security Estimate and Forecast

This paper analyzes the leakage that may occur during the liquid propellant store and transport, builds up the leakage fault tree and discusses how the basic incident affects the leakage incident. Based on the fuzzy and uncertainty of the leakage incident probability, the fuzzy theory is introduced into the fault tree analysis method and the generate probability of the basic incident is described as a fuzzy data, then the fuzzy fault rate of the whole system is predicted. This method can quickly and accurately check and diagnose the potential fault of the liquid propellant store and transport, which would be benefit for liquid propellant safe store and transport.