基于ERSM 的涡轮机匣径向变形动态概率分析

针对复杂结构动态概率分析,提出了高效率动态概率分析的极值响应面方法(ERSM)。首先介绍了动态概率分析的极值响应面方法基本原理,并推导出了其数学模型;其次,考虑机匣材料属性与边界条件的非线性、热载荷动态性以及多个随机变量,将该方法应用到高压涡轮机匣径向变形概率分析中,得出了各输入输出随机变量的分布特征和影响机匣径向动态变形的主要因素。与Monte Carlo法和响应面法进行比较,结果表明:ERSM在保证计算精度的前提下,既能大大缩短计算时间,又能提高计算效率,同时也验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

Dynamic Probability Analysis of Turbine Casing Radial Displacement Based on ERSM

Aiming at dynamic probability analysis of complex structure, the extreme response surface method （ERSM） was proposed to improve efficiency. Firstly, the basic principle of ERSM was introduced and its mathematical model was built. Secondly,considering the material nonlinearity, boundary conditions, dynamic heat loads and the random variables, the distribution characteristics of the input-output variables and important factors was obtained by the dynamic probability analysis of high pressure turbine casing. Finally the results comparing ERSM with the Monte Carlo method show that ERSM can not only reduce computing time, but also improves greatly the computational efficiency while verify its feasible and effectiveness.