四横四纵高铁网络对航空的分流模型及其应用

随着四横四纵高铁网络的逐年开通运行,国内数以百计的城市对航线客流量都会受到高铁开通的分流影响。建立高铁网络对航空旅客的分流模型,使其能够定量地分析高铁网络对航空客运市场的整体分流影响或单一高铁线路开通时的区域分流影响,有助于准确地预测国内航空运输市场的发展与变化。分流模型采用了计量经济学方法,以旅行时间差和票价浮动作为基本变量,收集国内外航空运输数据和高铁运营数据进行统计分析,得出四横四纵高铁网络对整体航空市场和京沪航线上的分流效应。高铁网络对航空旅客分流影响研究将对国内航空运输市场预测和航线优化产生重要的作用。

The Model of Aviation Diversion Affected by 4H4V HSR Network and Its Application

As the opening of High Speed Rail lines in succession, aviation passage traffic is affected by the HSR network in the domestic hundreds of cities. The model of aviation diversion can quantitatively analyze the impact of overall diversion of air passenger market or the impact of area diversion when a single high-speed rail line opened by HSR. It is helpful to predict the development and changes of the domestic air transport market accurately. Adopting the method of computation statistics for the diversion model, with difference of travel time and fares floating as basic variables, aviation transport data and HSR transport data collected home and abroad are analyzed.Finally, the diversion effects of total air market and Beijing-Shanghai route are obtained. The modeling of air passage traffic diversion effected by HSR will play an important role in air market forecast and route optimization.