我国民用飞机政策分析的CGE模型研究

研究民用飞机政策影响因素是国家制定相关政策的前提,同时也是民用飞机企业有效利用和规避现有政策的依据。针对民用飞机在研发、生产、销售、运营各阶段的相关宏观及产业政策,依据社会核算矩阵的框架,参考政策的作用路径,对已有的社会核算矩阵的部门进行拆分、合并,建立了用于民用飞机政策分析的描述性社会核算矩阵。在该社会核算矩阵的基础上,构造了用于民用飞机政策分析的CGE模型,并通过GAMS仿真验证了模型的可行性。模型的建立为今后分析我国政策对大飞机发展及运营的影响奠定了基础。

Study of CGE Model for Policy Analysis of Civil Aircraft of China

Studying the affecting factors of civil aircraft＇s policy is a prerequisite of formulating relevant policy for the country, but also the basis of making full use of and avoiding the existing policies for civil aircraft business. Focus on the relevant macroeconomic and industrial policy of civil aircraft during the different stage of studying, producing, selling and operating, according to the basic frame of social account- ing matrix, consider the effecting path of policy, a describing social accounting matrix for policy analysis of civil aircraft is established through splitting and merging the department of social accounting matrix. On the basis of the social accounting matrix, constructed a CGE model for policy analysis of civil aircraft, and the feasibility of the model has been proved through GAMS＇s simulation. The model lays the foundation for the future policy analysis of development and operational impact of large aircraft.