面向飞行器总体设计的UMDO技术综述

针对当前飞行器设计领域对总体设计过程中不确定性因素的精细化管理需求，对不确定性多学科设计优化（Uncertainty-based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization，UMDO）的研究现状和应用模式进行了综述和展望。首先综述UMDO的国内外发展现状，讨论开展UMDO研究和应用的必要性和紧迫性；从不确定性源建模、不确定性灵敏度分析、多学科不确定性分析、鲁棒性多学科优化设计4个方面梳理UMDO技术的发展体系，分析UMDO工程应用的研究现状，围绕飞行器总体设计过程提出适应各阶段设计需求的现代飞行器UMDO应用模式；最后，针对飞行器总体精细化设计能力的提升需求，分析了目前UMDO在工程应用过程中存在的问题，并探讨了UMDO的未来发展设想。

Review of UMDO for System Design of Flight Vehicle

In view of the fine management requirement of the uncertainty factors of the design process in the present aircraft design field, the research status and application mode of uncertainty-based multidisciplinary design optimization (UMDO) are summarized and prospected. At first, the status of development on UMDO, the necessity and urgency for researching and its application are presented and discussed in this paper. Then the development framework from uncertainty modeling, uncertainty sensitive analysis, multidisciplinary uncertainty analysis, robust design are summariged in four aspects. The research status of UMDO application in industrial area is analized. A UMDO application pattern of modern aircraft is proposed for satisfying the requirements of each design phase during the aircraft design process. Finally, the development demand and research planning of the UMDO are discussed and summarized for improving the ability of high-fidelity flight vehicle design.