| 美元汇率走势分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张昕,马登科.美元汇率走势分析及预测[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报(管理科学版),2008,26(5):109-112. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张昕 马登科 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东大学经济学院，吉林大学经济学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 美元汇率的走势是分析各种期货品种价格如何波动的风向标。文章首先探讨美元疲软的两个原因：经常账户赤字、财政赤字和次级债危机；进而尝试利用巨无霸指数和蒙特卡罗模拟构筑一个经济学模型对美元未来几年的走势作出预测；最后根据预测结果给出了美元汇率持续走低下现阶段的黄金期货投资的策略。
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| 关 键 词： | 美元汇率 巨无霸指数 汇率预测 黄金期货 |
Analysis of USD Exchange Rate Temdency |
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| ZHANG Xin,MA Deng-ke.Analysis of USD Exchange Rate Temdency[J].Journal of Zhengzhou Institute of Aeronautical Industry Management,2008,26(5):109-112. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xin MA Deng-ke |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Xin , MA Deng - ke (1. Economic School of Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China ; 2. Economic School, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China ) |
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| Abstract: | The direction of exchange rate of US dollar is a vane which could analysis the wave of futures prices as accurately as possible. This paper will discuss the reasons of weak US dollar： Current account deficits, Finance deficits and Subprime crisis The paper try to forecast the trend of US dollar which using The Big Mac index and Monte Carlo Simulation to build an economics model . An anther function is how to invest gold futures which the market take a downturn in the downstream of exchange rate of US dollar. |
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| Keywords: | exchange rate of US dollar The Big Mac index the forecast of exchange rate gold futures |
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