| 基于灰色理论的飞行事故率和事故症候率预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜毅.基于灰色理论的飞行事故率和事故症候率预测[J].中国民航学院学报,2007,25(6):9-10,18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜毅 |
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| 作者单位： | 民航中南空管局 广州510405 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于灰色预测理论,给出了飞行事故率和事故症候率预测分析的新方法。分析结果表明,采用灰色预测理论对飞行事故率和事故症候率进行预测分析,可以得到满意的预测精度,从而为民用航空器运营管理提供决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 飞行事故 事故症候 预测方法 灰色理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-5000（2007）06-0009-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-05-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-09-14 |
Forecast Analysis of Flight Accident-Rate or Flight Incident-Rate |
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| DU Yi.Forecast Analysis of Flight Accident-Rate or Flight Incident-Rate[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2007,25(6):9-10,18. |
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| Authors: | DU Yi |
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| Abstract: | The new forecast analysis method on the flight accident-rate and the flight incident-rate is discussed by using the forecast method based on grey control principle.The result shows that the satisfied precision of the forecast analysis on flight accident-rate and flight incident-rate can be obtained by using grey forecast.The decision basis for safety management of the civil aircraft operation may be provided. |
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| Keywords: | flight accident flight incident forecast method grey control principle |
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