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二维空间中目标轨迹预测算法研究与分析
引用本文:徐庆飞,张新,李卫民.二维空间中目标轨迹预测算法研究与分析[J].航空电子技术,2012(1):10-14.
作者姓名:徐庆飞  张新  李卫民
作者单位:1. 中国航空无线电电子研究所,上海200233
2. 驻上海航空电子公司军事代表室,上海200233
摘    要:本文主要研究移动目标在二维空间内的轨迹预测算法,首先介绍了马尔可夫蒙特卡罗预测算法,包括影响状态阀值的因素,以及转移概率和积累概率的计算方法;接着介绍了线性神经网络的预测算法,如神经元模型和神经网络模型的组成,之后重点介绍了线性神经网络的学习规则,以及学习率对预测算法的影响.最后通过仿真试验,对两种预测方法的精准度和自适应时间进行了对比和分析

关 键 词:马尔可夫  蒙特卡罗  线性神经网络  位置预测

Research and Analysis of Target Track Prediction Algorithm in 2-Dimensional Region
XU Qing-fei,ZHANG Xin,LI Wei-Min.Research and Analysis of Target Track Prediction Algorithm in 2-Dimensional Region[J].Avionics Technology,2012(1):10-14.
Authors:XU Qing-fei  ZHANG Xin  LI Wei-Min
Institution:1.China National Aeronautical Radio Electronics Research Institute,Shanghai 200233,China;2.Office of the Military Representatives to Shanghai Avionics Corporation,Shanghai 200233,China)
Abstract:In this paper the author carries out researches on the prediction of moving targets in a two-dimensional area.Firstly we introduce Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,such as factors about the threshold,transferring matrix and the cumulating matrix;Secondly,Linear Neural prediction algorithm is introduced,such as construction of neural network model,the learning method and the impact of learning rate on prediction.At last,by doing the simulating test,we compare the two prediction methods in terms of accuracy and adapting time.
Keywords:Markov  Monte Carlo  linear neuralnetwork  location prediction
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