人民币均衡汇率和汇率失调——基于货币分析模型

在货币分析框架下建立实际汇率的决定模型,确定决定均衡实际汇率的因素为国内外相对货币供给量、相对国民收入和相对利率。基于理论模型,选取1994年1季度到2012年2季度的数据进行实证检验并测算人民币均衡实际汇率和失调幅度。结果表明,人民币实际汇率在样本期内呈现高估和低估交替,且具有一定的修复调节机制,总体未显著偏离均衡水平,不存在大幅低估。因此,我国应继续坚持"自主性"的人民币汇率形成机制改革。

RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment——Based on Monetary Analysis Model

This paper establishes a real exchange rate model based on the monetary analysis frame- work. The model shows that relative money supply, relative national income and relative interest rates at home and abroad are the determinants of equilibrium exchange rate. Based on theoretical models, it makes an empirical test and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate and misalignment by the data from 1994Q1 to 2012Q2. The results show that the level of the RMB exchange rate presents alternately overestimated and underestimated during the sample period, and certain repair adjustment mechanism exists. Meanwhile, RMB exchange rate does not significantly deviate from the equilibrium level overall and has no substantial underestimate. Therefore, China should maintain the RMB exchange rate forma- tion mechanism reform of ＂autonomy＂.