卫星太阳电池阵在轨故障统计及分析

文章针对2000年1月至2012年9月期间79颗在轨卫星发生的114次太阳电池阵故障事件进行了分类统计分析，并利用Kaplan-Meier估计量分析方法对这些在轨故障进行了可靠性分析。结果表明：太阳电池阵的故障多发生在卫星在轨第一年，其中电子类故障发生率较高；不同卫星平台的系统缺陷或设计共性问题也与太阳电池阵故障紧密相关。最后，结合我国卫星太阳电池阵设计及制造工艺技术，提出了加强出厂前的测试和试验验证、加强仿真建模、加强冗余设计等建议。

Statistical data and reliability analysis of on-orbit anomalies and failures of satellite solar array

For the analysis of on-orbit anomalies and failures of the satellite solar arrays and their reliabilities, 114 sets of satellite in-orbit solar array anomalies and failures between January 2000 and September 2012 are studied, and of particular interest is the Kaplan-Meier estimator of on-orbit solar array failures of GEO satellites. The following results are obtained： the most frequently happened failures are the SAO failures; the number of GEO satellite failures are the largest; the first year in the orbit is the failure season; the electrical failures are the commonest; the system fault or the common problems of certain satellite buses could be involved. Some suggestions are made to improve the simulation model, the validation test before delivery or the redundancy design, which may help to improve the reliability of satellite solar arrays.