碰撞风险评估中的空间环境激励图方法

因航天器物理特征、空间环境扰动变化、预报技术和大气模型性能等既有不确定因素的存在，空间目标碰撞概率等与轨道预报相关的评估工作存在模糊度问题，无法准确描述碰撞风险水平。文章基于碰撞概率极值，简化气动力误差模型，量化计算轨道预报相关事务的边界；提出空间环境激励图和3σ区的概念，并给出具体实施方法以及空间碎片碰撞预警、空间物体陨落预报的计算示例。计算结果表明，该方法能较好应对轨道预报相关事务中的模糊度问题，可为相关航天工程实践和决策提供参考。

Space environmental excitation graph method for collision risk assessment

Due to the factors of uncertainty, such as those in the spacecraft physical characteristics, the disturbance of the space environment, the space environment prediction technique, and the performance of the atmospheric model, the assessments for the space target collision probability related to the orbit prediction may not be clear enough to accurately describe the collision rate levels. In this paper, based on the extreme value of the collision probability, the aerodynamic force error model is simplified and the boundary of the orbit prediction related issues is calculated quantitatively. The concepts of the spatial environment excitation graph and the 3σ domain are proposed, and the corresponsive method is implemented with calculation example of the space debris collision warning and the forecast of the fall-to-Earth of space objects. It is shown that the method can be used to evaluate and deal with the ambiguity problems in the orbit prediction related work, to provide some guidance for the relevant decision-making in the aerospace engineering practice.