一种基于TLE数据的轨道异常分析方法

空间在轨物体的轨道异常是航天工程及预警领域普遍关注的问题，及时发现轨道异常意义重大，通过分析空间物体的轨道异常，可以及时发现和识别规避事件或碰撞事件，还可以了解监测网的能力.本文提出一种基于TLE数据的简单的轨道异常分析方法——长半轴变化法.该方法快速有效，应用到低轨在用卫星和美俄解体碎片的异常分析中，异常物体正确识别率可达到100%；对美俄解体碎片进行轨道异常分析后得出，美国空间监视网可以稳定探测90%以上的解体碎片.

An orbital anomaly analysis method based on TLE data

Orbital Anomaly of space object is an important problem for satellite operators and users. It is very meaningful to find orbital anomaly timely and quickly. By analyzing orbital anomaly of space objects, the avoidance or collision event can be found and discriminated, further the ability of United States Space Surveillance Network (SSN) can be determined. This paper put forward a simple orbital anomaly analysis method based on TLE data called Semi-major Axis Change Method (SACM). This method is rapid and valid, and can be applied to orbital anomaly analysis of LEO operational satellites and the breakup debris produced in the Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 satellite collision. With this method, the discrimination accuracy rate can reach 100 percent. By analyzing the orbit anomaly of American Russian breakup debris with SACM, it is found that US SSN can steadily detect over 90 percent breakup debris.