| 航空业务量的季节性预测方法及其评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 张永莉,张晓全.航空业务量的季节性预测方法及其评价[J].中国民航学院学报,2008,26(4):55-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张永莉 张晓全 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津300300 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国民航大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对中国航空运输业务总周转量、客运量、货邮运量的月度和季度数据的预测分析，评价了Holt-Winters法和ARIMA方法在航空业务量季节性预测中的预测效果。研究结果表明，两种方法都有较高的预测精度，但季节性ARIMA方法要优于Holt-Winters法．使用季度数据和ARIMA方法的预测效果最好。
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| 关 键 词： | 航空业务量 Holt-Winters ARIMA 季节性预测 |
Methods of Air Traffic's Seasonal Forecast and Evaluation |
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| ZHANG Yong-li,ZHANG Xiao-quan.Methods of Air Traffic''s Seasonal Forecast and Evaluation[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2008,26(4):55-58. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yong-li ZHANG Xiao-quan |
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| Institution: | (Economics and Management College, CAUC, Tianjin 300300, China) |
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| Abstract: | By forecasting Chinese air traffic involving the freight turnover, the number of passengers and the volume of air cargo with the monthly and seasonal data, the Holt-Winters method and ARIMA method have been evaluated. The results show that seasonal ARIMA （auto-regression-integrated-reaving average） method is better than Holt-Winters method although both methods work well and ARIMA methgd with seasonal data produce the best forecasts. |
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| Keywords: | Holt-Winters ARIMA |
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