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An empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary shocks |
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| Authors: | N Gopalswamy A Lara PK Manoharan RA Howard |
| Institution: | aNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Mail Code 695, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA bThe Catholic University of America, 620 Michigan Ave., Washington, DC 20064, USA cNaval Research Laboratory, Code 7600, Washington, DC 20064, USA |
| Abstract: | We extend the empirical coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival model of Gopalswamy et al. Gopalswamy, N. et al. Predicting the 1-AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 29207, 2001] to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks. A set of 29 IP shocks and the associated magnetic clouds observed by the Wind spacecraft are used for this study. The primary input to this empirical shock arrival model is the initial speed of white-light CMEs obtained using coronagraphs. We use the gas dynamic piston–shock relationship to derive the ESA model which provides a simple means of obtaining the 1-AU speed and arrival times of interplanetary shocks using CME speeds. |
| Keywords: | Space weather Interplanetary shocks Predicting interplanetary shock arrival Coronal mass ejections |
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