| 机匣包容性的贝叶斯评价方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴旭明,宁宣熙.机匣包容性的贝叶斯评价方法[J].航空学报,1998,19(2):200-204. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴旭明 宁宣熙 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学工商学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 用击穿率描述机匣包容性，知识状态曲线表达击穿率评价结果。针对实际评价中有关知识和信息逐步完善的特点，运用贝叶斯理论，研究出一个动态递推的评价方法。解决了贝叶斯方法实用中难题：如何简易地确定先验的贝塔分布。
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| 关 键 词： | 机匣包容性 贝叶斯估计 置信界限 击穿率 专家意见 贝塔分布 |
| 收稿时间： | 1997-09-22; |
| 修稿时间： | 1997-11-28 |
BAYESIAN METHOD FOR THE CASE CONTAINMENT ASSESSMENT |
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| Wu Xuming,Ning Xuanxi.BAYESIAN METHOD FOR THE CASE CONTAINMENT ASSESSMENT[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,1998,19(2):200-204. |
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| Authors: | Wu Xuming Ning Xuanxi |
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| Institution: | College of Industry & Business,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, 210016 |
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| Abstract: | The case containment is described by the puncture rate, whose assessment result is represented by the state of knowledge probability curve. Considering the step by step improvement in the related knowledge and information, a dynamic and recurring method is advocated of assessing the containment with Bayes theorem and the solution is obtained to the problem in its practical application: how to set forth a prior Beta distribution. |
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| Keywords: | case containment Bayes estimations confidence limits puncture rate expert opinions Beta distribution |
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