Manned missions to Mars: Minimizing risks of failure |
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| Institution: | 1. Laboratoire de l''Intégration du Materiau au Systeme (UMR CNRS 5218), ENSC-IPB, Bordeaux, France;2. Technical University, Vienna, Austria, ERS Co., Los Altos, CA USA, and University of California, Department of Electrical Engineering, Santa Cruz, CA, USA;1. University of Basilicata, School of Engineering, 10, Ateneo Lucano Street, 85100 Potenza, Italy;2. National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), c/da S.Loja, 85050 Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy;1. Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia;2. Research Centre for Astrophysics and Geophysics MAS, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia;3. Irkutsk State Technical University, Irkutsk, Russia;1. Politecnico di Milano, Polo Territoriale di Lecco, Via M. d′Oggiono 18/a, 23900 Lecco, Italy;2. Micos Engineering GmbH, Dübendorf (ZH), Switzerland;1. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Chofu, Tokyo 182-8522, Japan;2. University of Aizu, Fukushima, Japan;3. University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Some major risks-of-failure issues for the future manned missions to Mars are discussed, with an objective to address criteria for making such missions possible, successful, safe and cost-effective. The following astronautical and instrumentation-and-equipment-reliability related aspects of the missions are considered: redundancies and backup strategies; costs; assessed probability of failure as a suitable reliability criterion for the instrumentation (equipment); probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of the mission success and safety. It is concluded that parametric risk modeling is a must for a risk-driven decision-making process. |
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| Keywords: | Risk assessment Risk analysis Manned mission to Mars |
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