Peter D. Zimmerman is Distinguished Visiting Professor of Engineering and Applied Science, Department of Engineering Management, and Faculty Fellow, Space Policy Institute, The George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA
Abstract:
The Bush administration is committed to achieving the rapid development and early deployment of some kind of space-based missile defence, with Brilliant Pebbles the favoured candidate. This article examines the conditions necessary to maintain stability during the extended period of transition from offence to defence dominance, and concludes that an agreement incorporating these conditions is most unlikely to be achieved. If the superpowers could agree to such a transition, with its prerequisite of virtually total strategic disarmament, they would agree to nuclear disarmament itself.