| 多样本时间序列的P-T曲线可靠性评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 马小兵,赵宇.多样本时间序列的P-T曲线可靠性评估方法[J].航空动力学报,2007,22(3):450-453. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马小兵 赵宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学,可靠性工程研究所,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出一种用于评估固体火箭发动机内弹道压强-时间曲线(P-T曲线)的多样本时间序列方法.该方法可以综合利用单条样本曲线数据内的纵向信息和多条样本曲线数据间的横向信息,提高固体火箭发动机内弹道性能曲线可靠性评估的精度.具体给出了等间距与非等间距情形下多样本P-T曲线模型参数的极大似然估计方法以及当给定压强满足可靠性要求的上、下限时可靠度的点估计与区间估计计算公式.文中最后给出了一个具体实例.
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| 关 键 词： | 航空、航天推进系统 多样本时间序列 P-T曲线 极大似然估计 可靠性 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-8055(2007)03-0450-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/9/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年9月10日 |
Method of reliability evaluation for P-T curve based on multi-sample time series analysis |
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| MA Xiao-bing and ZHAO Yu.Method of reliability evaluation for P-T curve based on multi-sample time series analysis[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2007,22(3):450-453. |
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| Authors: | MA Xiao-bing and ZHAO Yu |
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| Institution: | Institute of Reliability Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing100083, China;Institute of Reliability Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing100083, China |
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| Abstract: | A reliability evaluation method for P-T curve based on multi-sample time series analysis is proposed.The method can synthesize longitudinal and transverse information existing in performance curves,and evaluate the internal ballistic reliability of solid rocket engine with high precision.The maximum likelihood estimations of multi-sample time series with both equally and unequally spaced data are discussed in detail.Furthermore,the formulas of point estimation and confidence interval estimation are introduced when upper and lower limits of P-T curve are assumed.An example is presented. |
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| Keywords: | aerospace propulsion system multi-sample time series P-T curve maximum likelihood estimation reliability |
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