商用飞机持续适航事件经济性分析模型

我国某型民用飞机于2015 年开始陆续交付运行,积累了大量的持续适航事件和数据,但缺少量化的评价机制,用于持续适航事件的经济性分析。本文通过对民用飞机持续适航事件和数据的收集与分析,结合对主制造商和航空公司的成本和收益损失的计算,提出持续适航事件成本结构;在此基础上,建立单个事件的成本模型和持续适航事件经验曲线模型,进一步提出预测机型成熟期的持续适航事件成本预测模型并验证。结果表明：在机队持续适航成本预测模型提出的过程中,飞机停场天数、事件接收到确定措施时间和措施实施时间的取值敏感度高,在后续机队的运行过程中,应尽量减小这三个参数的取值,以降低持续适航事件成本。

Economic analysis model of Continuous Airworthinessof Commercial Aircraft

In view of the Continuous Airworthiness event of commercial aircraft, combined with the analysis of the impact on the cost and income of both manufacturers and airlines. Based on the analysis methods of manufacturers" life cycle cost and airlines" operating cost and income, this paper proposes an economic analysis model of Continuous Airworthiness activities of commercial aircraft, and analyzed the data of specific aircraft type. The model can be used analyze the initial operation cost of new model development according to different event classification and its cost and benefit impact, and further predict the Continuous Airworthiness cost of model maturity based on the learning curve theory.