无控航天器与空间碎片再入的工程预测方法研究现状

无控航天器、火箭末级以及空间碎片再入地球大气层后可能未烧尽，残存的小碎片高速撞击地面，对人类安全和生态系统构成极大威胁。提前预测其再入轨迹并采取预防措施能够有效降低地面风险。文章对无控航天器和空间碎片再入工程预测模型，包括航天器模型、动力学模型、气动热模型和烧蚀解体模型的研究现状进行跟踪与总结，也介绍了国内外有公开资料的工程应用软件，并讨论若干关键问题和进一步研究方向。

Engineering methods for reentry prediction of uncontrolled spacecraft and space debris: the state of the art

When uncontrolled spacecraft, the last stage rocket and space debris reenter the Earth atmosphere, they may survive and impact the ground at an extremely high velocity, posing a great threat to human beings and natural ecosystems. Predicting the trajectories of the reentry objects in advance for taking necessary precautions can be an effective way to reduce the hazard. In this paper, we present an overview on the state of the art of the engineering methods for the prediction of the reentry of uncontrolled spacecraft and space debris, including the spacecraft geometric model, the dynamic model, the aerothermodynamic model, the ablation model and the breakup model, as well as engineering softwares available in open literature. Some key issues and future trends in this field are discussed.