可靠性分析在航空复合材料结构上的应用及展望

基于概率统计的可靠性分析研究对于航空复合材料结构有着重要的意义，一是航空结构尤其是民航结构的安全性要求极高，需要尽可能地预测或判断发生故障的可能性；二是复合材料的变异因素较多，采用传统设计导致折减系数较高。目前复合材料结构设计仍以安全系数的方法来保证结构的可靠性，在此过程中并不进行正式的风险评估，而基于概率的可靠性分析则设定一个可靠性目标来代替安全系数，但它需更成熟的概率统计方法以及大量的样本数据，所以只能作为传统结构设计的补充，在安全裕度不足时进行风险预测。论述了航空复合材料可靠性概率分析的历史演变、意义、主要理论方法以及一般步骤等内容，同时对复合材料结构的可靠性分析的未来进行了展望，为复合材料可靠性分析的发展和研究提供一定的参考。

Application and future of probabilistic analysis on aeronautical composite structures

Reliability analysis based on probability and statistics is of great significance for aviation composite structures. One is that the safety requirements of aviation structures, especially civil aviation structures, are extremely high, and it is necessary to predict the possibility of failure as much as possible. The second is that there are more variation factors in composite materials, and the traditional design leads to a higher discount coefficient. At present, the composite structural design still uses the method of safety factor to ensure the reliability of the structure. In this process there is no formal risk assessment, and the reliability analysis based on probability sets a reliability goal to replace the safety factor, but it requires more mature probability and statistical methods and a large number of sample data, so it can only be used as a supplement to the traditional structural design, and the risk prediction is carried out when the safety margin is insufficient. This paper discusses the historical evolution, significance, main theoretical methods and general steps of reliability probabilistic analysis of aeronautical composite materials, and looks forward to the future of reliability analysis of composite structures, providing a certain reference for the development and research of the reliability analysis of composite materials.