基于SST和Bayes的初始备件需求确定方法

随着使用环境的变化，研制阶段制定的初始备件方案常常无法满足装备部署部队后的保障要求。针对该情况，引入了相似系统理论（SST）和Bayes方法，根据相似系统理论初步确定备件的初始失效率，依据装备在使用中的寿命分布类型，取出对应的共轭先验分布，利用最大熵方法求取超参数，运用Bayes理论得到后验失效率，综合初始失效率和后验失效率确定初始备件需求。算例结果表明该方法满足实际应用要求，是初始备件需求预测可靠而有效的方法。

Determination method of initial spares requirement based on SST and Bayes theory

With the changes of use environment,the initial spares plan cannot meet the equipment sup-port requirement when the equipment is disposed.Aimed at this situation,similarity system theory(SST)and Bayes method are introduced.According to the similarity system theory,the initial failure rate of spare parts is preliminarily determined.Then,the corresponding conjugate prior distribution is taken out based on the life distribution type in the aviation equipment which is in use.The maximum entropy method is used to calculate the maximum parameters and the Bayes theory is used to obtain posterior failure rate.Finally,the initial fail-ure rate and posterior failure rate are combined to determine the initial demand for aviation spares.Numerical example results show that the method satisfies the requirement of practical application,which is a reliable and effective demand prediction method for the initial spares.