基于GRU的仪表着陆系统故障预测方法研究

故障预测技术在保障仪表着陆系统的可靠运行、提高空管效能等方面具有重要应用价值。结合仪表着陆系统运行特征和实际运行维护工作,提出一种基于GRU 的仪表着陆系统故障预测方法。以航向信标为研究对象,在分析其监控参数与设备运行状态之间的关系后,将监控参数作为故障特征参数;根据监控参数时间步长、时变性特征显著的特点,采用GRU 预测监控参数的未来变化趋势;根据监控参数的隶属函数计算出参数未来时刻可能发生“故障”的概率,实现对航向信标故障的预测。结果表明：基于GRU 的预测方法的相对预测精度在95% 以上。

Research on Fault Prediction Method of Instrument Landing System Based on GRU

Fault prediction technology has important application value in ensuring the reliable operation of instrument landing system and improving ATC effectiveness. Combining the operation characteristics of instrument landing system and actual operation and maintenance work, a fault prediction method of instrument landing system based on GRU is proposed. Taking heading beacons as the research object, the monitoring parameters are used as fault characteristic parameters after analyzing the relationship between their monitoring parameters and equipment operation status. Then, the GRU algorithm is used to predict the future change trend of the monitoring parameters according to their time step and significant time-varying characteristics. Finally, the probability of "failure" is calculated according to the subordinate function of the monitoring parameters, and the prediction of heading beacon failure is realized. The relative prediction accuracy of the GRU prediction model is over 95% after two years of training with the monitoring parameter data. By comparing the prediction of heading beacon failure data and normal operation data, the validity of the monitoring parameters as failure characteristics to characterize the operation of the heading beacon and the effectiveness of the GRU-based failure prediction method are verified.