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Impact of the time span selected to calibrate the ballistic parameter on spacecraft re-entry predictions
Authors:C Pardini  L Anselmo
Institution:Space Flight Dynamics Laboratory, Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell’Informazione (ISTI), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Via G. Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa, Italy
Abstract:The trajectory modeling of satellites that are re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere, as a result of natural orbital decay, has always been a challenging task. Residual lifetime estimations and re-entry predictions are affected by substantial uncertainties, associated with atmospheric density models, with the forecasts of the relevant solar and geomagnetic activity indices and with tracking data, which for uncontrolled re-entries are usually sparse and not particularly accurate. Furthermore, modeling the aerodynamic forces that act on low altitude satellites is a formidable task, especially for objects of a complex shape and unknown attitude evolution.
Keywords:Re-entry predictions  Aerodynamic drag modeling  Ballistic parameter  Residual lifetime estimation
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