| 关于求解不定型决策问题的等概率法的讨论 |
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| 引用本文： | 宁宣熙.关于求解不定型决策问题的等概率法的讨论[J].南京航空航天大学学报,1986(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 宁宣熙 |
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| 作者单位： | Ning，Xuanxi |
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| 摘 要： | 为了寻找求解不定型决策问题中评价最优方案的客观标准,本文用统计试验的方法研究了在各种可能的自然状态下选择最优方案的结果。发现益损值矩阵和最优方案之间存在着内在的统计规律。研究结果表明:益损值矩阵中,每个行动方案在不用自然状态下各益损值的总和,代表该方案在各种可能的自然状态概率分布情况下被选为最优方案的概率指标。 根据统计研究的结果,本文提出了方案益损值总和及方案益损值极差两个指标来评价各方案优劣及类型的综合方法。文中详细介绍了这种方法的实施细则。
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| 关 键 词： | 决策论 统计实验法 概率法 |
A Discussion on the Criterion of Rationality in Decision Making under Uncertainty without Probability Information |
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| Ning,Xuanxi.A Discussion on the Criterion of Rationality in Decision Making under Uncertainty without Probability Information[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics,1986(2). |
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| Authors: | Ning Xuanxi |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of selecting optimum alternative of action under natural states with various possible probability information by means of statistical method.It is found that there is a relationship between the profit matrix and the optimum alternative of action.The result shows the total of the profit of any alternative in the profit matrix represents the probability with which the alternative is taken as the optimum one.In this paper it is suggested to use the total of the profit of action for evaluation of each alternative and to use the profit range of action for determination of its category.Examples are cited in illustration of the details of this improved method. |
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| Keywords: | decision theory statistical experiments method probabilitic methods |
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