Regional VTEC modeling with multivariate adaptive regression splines

Different algorithms have been proposed for the modeling of the ionosphere. The most frequently used method is based on the spherical harmonic functions achieving successful results for global modeling but not for the local and regional applications due to the bounded spherical harmonic representation. Irregular data distribution and data gaps cause also difficulties in the global modeling of the ionosphere. In this paper we propose an efficient algorithm with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) to represent a new non-parametric approach for regional spatio-temporal mapping of the ionospheric electron density using ground-based GPS observations. MARS can handle very large data sets of observations and is an adaptive and flexible method, which can be applied to both linear and non-linear problems. The basis functions are directly obtained from the observations and have space partitioning property resulting in an adaptive model. This property helps to avoid numerical problems and computational inefficiency caused by the number of coefficients, which has to be increased to detect the local variations of the ionosphere. Since the fitting procedure is additive it does not require gridding and is able to process large amounts of data with large gaps. Additionally the model complexity can be controlled by the user via limiting the maximal number of coefficients and the order of products of the basis functions. In this study the MARS algorithm is applied to real data sets over Europe for regional ionosphere modeling. The results are compared with the results of Bernese GPS Software over the same region.