天基空间监视交会计算和可观测时段预报的误差分析

将卫星和目标的轨道预报误差引入天基空间目标监视的任务规划中，研究了交会计算和可观测时段预报的误差分析方法。在协方差转换基本方法和交会信息计算公式的基础上，推导了从RSW轨道坐标系到RAE参数（距离、方位角、俯仰角）的协方差转换方法。对LEO和GEO目标观测分别引入相对速度和角距变化率，给出了可观测时段误差的分析方法。算例表明本文的计算结果与Monte-Carlo仿真结果相对误差不大于4%，典型轨道误差下LEO和GEO目标的可观测时段误差分别为0.2秒和3秒量级。该方法对任务规划和姿态及相机导引具有指导意义，还可用于分析成功观测对轨道预报精度的需求。

Error Analysis of Conjunction Calculation and Visible Time Duration Prediction for Space Based Space Surveillance

The orbital prediction errors of the satellite and the space target are introduced into the mission planning of space-based space surveillance. The error analysis methods for the conjunction calculation and the visible time duration prediction are proposed. The transformation of covariance from the RSW orbit-based coordinates system to the RAE parameters (range, azimuth, and elevation) is deduced on the basis of method for transformation of covariance and the formulae of conjunction calculation. The error analysis methods of visible time duration are discussed by introducing the relative velocity and the angular rate for LEO and GEO target observations respectively. The examples indicate that the relative error between one from this paper and result from Monte-Carlo method is less than 4%. The standard deviations of visible time duration for LEO and GEO targets under typical orbit error are 0.2 s and 3 s， respectively. This method is helpful for the mission planning and guiding of attitude maneuver and camera pointing, and the requirement analysis of orbit prediction accuracy for space-based observation.