基于离散AMSAA模型的固体火箭发动机可靠性增长分析

描述了离散AMSAA模型与Duane学习曲线特性的关系,给出了该模型的使用方法,包括可靠性增长趋势检验、模型参数的极大似然估计和拟合优度检验方法等。利用进化算法对似然函数求极值,解决了复杂多峰似然函数的求极值问题。在此基础上得到最终研制阶段可靠性点估计和可靠性置信下限。最后,给出了固体火箭发动机可靠性增长分析实例,并与经典评估方法进行了比较,说明了该模型的优越性。

Analysis on reliability growth of solid rocket motor based on AMSAA discrete model

The relationship between AMSAA discrete model a nd Duane learning-curve property was described.Then use methods of the model wer e presented,such as reliability growth trend test,maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) of model parameters and goodness of fit test.The extreme value of likelih ood function was calculated by using evolutionary algorithms so as to solve the extreme value problem of complex multi-peak likelihood function.On the basis o f the result,reliability point estimation and lower confidence bound(LCB) in th e last development phase were obtained.Finally,the analysis examples of reliabi lity growth for SRM were given,and the method was compared with classical estima tion method to verify superiority of the AMSAA discrete model.