基于驻留时间比的近地空间碎片环境建模

为分析近地空间碎片的分布规律,提出了一种以碎片在空间网格内驻留时间为基础的碎片环境统计建模方法.该方法利用多项式拟合和求根方法统计碎片在空间网格内的停留时间,获取模型基础数据,并据此采用多项式预测、插值和时间序列分析等技术,综合分析空间碎片的分布与演化规律.给出了一个基于双行根数(TLE,Two Line Elements)数据的建模实例,该实例通过了ORDEM2000模型的对比验证,并获得了一些更精细的近地空间碎片环境特征.所得建模方法和分析结论可为长期运行的近地航天器轨道设计、碰撞风险评估及防护等提供技术支撑.

Space debris environment modeling in low earth orbit based on resident time ratio

For the distribution analysis of space debris in the low earth orbit, a new statistical modeling method for space debris was proposed based on the debris resident time in the space grid. Polynomial fitting and extraction techniques for debris resident time statistic were introduced to obtain the basic modeling datum. Then, the distribution and evolution regularity of debris in low earth orbit was studied by virtue of the polynomial prediction, polynomial interpretation, time serials analyses and so on according to the modeling datum storage. Finally, a modeling case utilizing the two line elements (TLEs) was given. The modeling results were validated by the ORDEM2000 model. Some subtle distribution regularities were deduced. The modeling method and analysis results are helpful for researches on orbit designing, collision risk evaluation and collision defense for spacecraft long-term flying in the low earth orbit.