中国民航旅客吞吐量的灰色马尔可夫模型预测

民航旅客吞吐量的规模和增长速度是民航基础数据，是衡量民航发展的重要指标，旨在通过统计学的一般方法揭示民航旅客吞吐量的变化规律、做出准确的预测。民航旅客吞吐量的规模和增长可以使用灰色预测模型进行预测．并且结果比较准确。在此基础上，提出了引入马尔可夫链预测理论，建立民航旅客吞吐量灰色马尔可夫预测模型的设想。以期使预测结果更加准确可靠。在实例中，对比了灰色预测模型和灰色马尔可夫预测模型的预测结果．验证了民航旅客吞吐量的灰色马尔可夫预测模型预测精度高于灰色预测模型预测精度。可见。灰色马尔可夫预测模型可用于民航旅客吞吐量预测，并可以提供比灰色预测模型更为准确可靠的预测结果。最后．依据灰色马尔可夫预测模型计算得出了2007年和2008年的民航旅客吞吐量预测值．

Apply Grey Markov SCGM (1,1) Model to Predict Airports Passenger Traffic in China

The amount of passengers handled at airports and its growth is basic data and also an important indicator of development of civil aviation. This article aims to use general statistical methods to reveal the changes of amount of passengers handled at airports and make accurate forecasts. The grey prediction model can be applied to the prediction of passengers handled at airports, and has a good accuracy. On this basis, we proposed the introduction of Markov chain prediction theory and the ideas to establish a grey Markov model to predict the amount of passengers handled at airports in order to make forecasts more accurate and reliable. In the example, we compared the results of grey prediction model and grey Markov prediction model and verified that the accuracy of the prediction of grey Markov model is higher than that of the grey prediction model. Thus, grey Markov model can be applied to the prediction of the amount of passengers handled at airports and can provide more accuracy than the grey model for reliable predictions. Finally, using grey Markov model, we forecasted the amount of passengers handled at airports for 2007 and 2008.