对外直接投资的贸易效应——基于中美比较的视角

20世纪80年代以来,伴随着改革开放和国际产业转移,发达国家加快了对外投资步伐,中国也抓住这一机会成为世界上最大的对外直接投资吸引地。经过三十多年来的发展,如今中国企业也开始了＂走出去＂的脚步。对外投资对于一国的贸易有何影响,学界对此有很多研究。文章对1984~2012年中国和美国之间的双边直接投资和贸易进行检验,利用协整模型进行计量分析。分析结果表明：中国对美国的直接投资会增加中国对美国的进口,美国对中国的直接投资则会增加中国对美国的出口。

The Influence on Trade of FDI

The opening up and reform policy,together with the international industry transmission in 1980 s brought FDI opportunities to developing countries and China,seizing such chance,became the largest destination of FDI in the world. After 30 years＇ development,China＇s enterprises embark on the investment opportunities overseas. The influences of FDI on the trade of the country involved have been a heated issue in academia. This paper is based on the statistics of Sino- U. S. bilateral FDI and trade between 1984 and 2012 and adopts the cointegration model as the approach for econometrics and whereupon finds out the conclusion：FDI from China to U. S. will increase the import from U. S.,and vice versa.