未知载荷条件下机械系统剩余寿命预测方法

针对无法确定复杂机械系统的随机工作载荷的问题，提出了一种基于隐半马尔可夫模型(HSMM)的寿命预测方法。在完成基于隐半马尔可夫模型的载荷空间构建后，引入前向-后向过渡参数，并结合Viterbi算法对模型参数进行求解，通过估计参数预测随机未来载荷的转移走向及对应的概率。将载荷预测的结果结合基于多传感器信息的寿命预测模型预测系统的剩余寿命。使用NASA的商用模块化航空推进系统仿真数据验证所提方法的有效性和正确性。 

Remaining life prediction method of mechanical system under uncertain loads

Aimed at the problem that the random working load of complex mechanical systems cannot be clearly given, a life prediction method based on hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) is proposed. After completing the construction of the load space based on the HSMM, the forward and backward transition parameters and the Viterbi algorithm are introduced to solve the model parameters. The estimated parameters are used to predict the transition direction and corresponding probability of random future loads. The prediction result of the load is combined with the life prediction model based on multi-sensor information to predict the remaining life of the system. The effectiveness and correctness of the proposed method are verified by using NASA's commercial modular aero-propulsion system simulation data as a case study.