飞机结冰的不确定性量化研究进展

为深入认识影响飞机结冰的不确定性及其研究方法，从自然条件结冰、冰风洞试验、数值模拟等方面，介绍了飞机结冰不确定性来源，以蒙特卡洛法、多项式混沌法和随机配置法等为例，系统分析了各种不确定性量化方法在计算能力、求解精度等方面的优劣。考虑飞机结冰不确定性量化处于起步时期，重点综述了数值模拟中结冰条件不确定性对冰形和气动特性的影响。从结合单步法和多步法确定最佳结冰时间步长来提升结冰计算精度和效率、对其他关键部件进行结冰不确定性量化从而为更精细化的防/除冰系统的设计提供支撑，以及通过建立高精度的代理模型来代替原本复杂的数值模拟系统以应对考虑多个不确定性因素共同作用所带来的计算挑战等多个方面，全面展望不确定性量化方法及其在飞机结冰应用中的发展方向。

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification research of aircraft icing

In order to deeply understand the uncertainty affecting aircraft icing and its research methods,the sources of aircraft icing uncertainty were introduced from the aspects of natural icing,ice wind tunnel test,and numerical simulation.Taking Monte Carlo method,polynomial chaos method and random configuration method as examples,the advantages and disadvantages of various uncertainty quantification methods in calculation ability and solution accuracy were systematically analyzed.Furthermore,considering the quantification of aircraft icing uncertainty at the beginning,focus was put on the influence of icing condition uncertainty on ice shape and aerodynamic characteristics in numerical simulation.Finally,single-step and multi-step methods were combined to determine the best ice time step to improve the accuracy and efficiency of ice calculation,to quantify the ice uncertainty of other key components to provide support for the more refined design of ice prevention/de-icing system,and to build a high-precision proxy model to replace the original complex numerical simulation system for meeting the computational challenges caused by the combined action of multiple uncertainties,etc.Overall prospect of uncertainty quantification method and its development direction in aircraft icing application was presented.