从属函数在地磁扰动预报研究中的初步应用

根据1966-1982年期间有关太阳耀斑、行星际激波和地磁扰动的观测资料而建立的从属函数,对1984-1985年间的行星际闪烁观测中能证认出的耀斑-激波所引起的地磁扰动作了预报试验。结果表明:(1)磁扰开始时间预报的相对误差,δT/T≤10%的事件数为20个,占总事件数的50%,δT/T≤20%的事件占总事件数的70%以上;(2)磁扰幅度(ΣKp)大小的预报,其相对误差δΣKp/ΣKp≤30%的事件数为32个,占总事件数的80%,而δΣKp/ΣKp≥60%仅占15%.本文方法显示了一定潜力,有待从聚类分析方面进一步深入。 

PRIMARY APPLICATION OF THE MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS IN THE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE PREDICTIONS

Prediction test for 40 geomagnetic disturbance events caused by the flare-associated interplanetary shock waves, which can be identified by interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations during 1984-1985, are made based on the membership functions established by using observational data on the solar flares, the interplanetary shock waves and the geomagnetic disturbances during the period of 1966-1982. Main results are: (1) Prediction of the magnetic disturbance onset time-for 50% of all events, the relative error, δT/T≤10%; and for 70%,δT/r≤20%; (2) Prediction of the geomagnetic disturbance amplitudes-for 80% of allevents, the relative error, δ∑Kp/∑Kp≤30% ; and only for 15%, δ∑Kp/∑Kp≥60%. These results show that the method adoption in this paper has some potential prospects for investigating the flare-associated interplanetary shock waves and the geomagnetic disturbance predictions.