基于EVENT模型的垂直间隔碰撞风险研究

空中交通流量逐年快速增长，迫切需要提高空域容量和空域利用率，缩小间隔标准可以快速有效地缓解流量增长和减少延误，因此必须研究不同间隔标准下的碰撞风险，从而确定缩小间隔标准的安全性。建立了基于EVENT的垂直碰撞风险模型，推导出了相应的计算方法；并运用该模型分析了垂直间隔对碰撞风险的影响。结果证明，高空空域缩小垂直间隔标准后的碰撞风险满足安全目标等级的要求，而且随着流量的增长，缩小垂直间隔标准后的碰撞风险在最近15年内保持稳定的安全水平。

Research on Collision Risk of Vertical Separation Minima Based on EVENT Model

With the increasing traffic flow,the separation standard is required to be reduced in order to enhance airspace capacity and decrease delays. The reduced separation minima is able to be applied to the air traffic management if it is proved to be safety ,so collision risk for different vertical separation is evaluated in order to meet the target level of safety. A vertical collision risk model is established and the calculation methods are deduced. Finally how the vertical separation influence collision risk is addressed and the results show that the collision risk meets the safety requirements if vertical separation minima are reduced to 300 meters, and the collision risk maintains safety level in the next fifteen years with the increasing traffic flow.